{
  "id": 1061,
  "title": "Submissions Explained",
  "url": "/competitions/WhatDoYouKnow/discussion/1061",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2011-11-19T22:55:55.617Z",
  "votes": null,
  "comment_count": 11,
  "views": 6026,
  "content": "<p>I am wanting to predict a set of data for submission but I don't know where that set is which I am required to predict. Where can I find the set of data that is required to predict?</p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\r\n<p>Many thanks,</p>\r\n<p>Steven Mark Ford</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "6617",
      "postDate": "11/19/2011 22:55:55",
      "content": "<p>I am wanting to predict a set of data for submission but I don't know where that set is which I am required to predict. Where can I find the set of data that is required to predict?</p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\r\n<p>Many thanks,</p>\r\n<p>Steven Mark Ford</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6618",
      "postDate": "11/19/2011 23:15:05",
      "content": "<p>Sorry about the confusion, Steven -- the set to predict is test.csv (contained in the zip or 7z file). You just need to submit a csv with user_id and your prediction. Does that help?</p>\r\n<p>-Thomas</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6619",
      "postDate": "11/19/2011 23:19:19",
      "content": "<p>Aaaah! Thanks Thomas, I see it now.</p>\r\n<p>-Steven</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6840",
      "postDate": "11/28/2011 21:37:00",
      "content": "<p>to clarify (this is my first competition) we have to predict whether a student will get the next question right or wrong, correct?<br>\r\nbut we don't have any contextual data about the nature of that particular question?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6841",
      "postDate": "11/28/2011 21:39:44",
      "content": "<p>You are predicting whether the student will get a particular question right or wrong, correct.</p>\r\n<p>You do have a lot of contextual data, though -- if you look inside test.csv, you'll see that most of the data fields are populated.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6842",
      "postDate": "11/28/2011 21:41:13",
      "content": "<p>You know the id of the question that you need to predict for a particular user. So for instance you might look at that question and compute that over the training set, only 1/4 of people get this answer correct so I will predict 0.25. Delving a bit deeper\r\n you might discover that this particular user is smarter than average, so you might increase your prediction from 0.25 to say 0.35. Hope that helps.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6843",
      "postDate": "11/28/2011 22:00:09",
      "content": "<p>You might find this helpful, too, since the benchmark is based on Rasch analysis:</p>\r\n<p>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasch_model</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6844",
      "postDate": "11/28/2011 22:02:55",
      "content": "<p>@Yetiman -- superb profile picture :)</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6849",
      "postDate": "11/29/2011 01:23:31",
      "content": "<p>ok, I was confused by the benchmark<em>lmer</em>submission.csv. It had two columns so I thought we could only predict on user_id and the users' history.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6852",
      "postDate": "11/29/2011 04:28:34",
      "content": "<p>Also, two thumbs up for</p>\r\n<p>1) This book about lme4 <br>\r\nhttp://lme4.r-forge.r-project.org/book/</p>\r\n<p>2) setting verbose=TRUE in your lmer -breaks the tedium and helps to reassure yourself that your processes haven't gone into complete lockdown.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6901",
      "postDate": "12/01/2011 19:52:43",
      "content": "<p>@bhm - awesome book link. Any idea on where Chapter 3 is?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "6904",
      "postDate": "12/01/2011 21:07:04",
      "content": "<p>@idris - Glad you found it helpful. My guess is that chapter 3 will be available in the physical book when it comes out. As far as a I can tell these are draft chapters. Wish I had that chapter 3....</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 6618,
      "author_name": "thomaslotze",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/19/2011 23:15:05",
      "content": "<p>Sorry about the confusion, Steven -- the set to predict is test.csv (contained in the zip or 7z file). You just need to submit a csv with user_id and your prediction. Does that help?</p>\r\n<p>-Thomas</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6619,
      "author_name": "stevenmarkford",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/19/2011 23:19:19",
      "content": "<p>Aaaah! Thanks Thomas, I see it now.</p>\r\n<p>-Steven</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6840,
      "author_name": "morenoh149",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/28/2011 21:37:00",
      "content": "<p>to clarify (this is my first competition) we have to predict whether a student will get the next question right or wrong, correct?<br>\r\nbut we don't have any contextual data about the nature of that particular question?</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6841,
      "author_name": "thomaslotze",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/28/2011 21:39:44",
      "content": "<p>You are predicting whether the student will get a particular question right or wrong, correct.</p>\r\n<p>You do have a lot of contextual data, though -- if you look inside test.csv, you'll see that most of the data fields are populated.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6842,
      "author_name": "jasontigg",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/28/2011 21:41:13",
      "content": "<p>You know the id of the question that you need to predict for a particular user. So for instance you might look at that question and compute that over the training set, only 1/4 of people get this answer correct so I will predict 0.25. Delving a bit deeper\r\n you might discover that this particular user is smarter than average, so you might increase your prediction from 0.25 to say 0.35. Hope that helps.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6843,
      "author_name": "yetiman",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/28/2011 22:00:09",
      "content": "<p>You might find this helpful, too, since the benchmark is based on Rasch analysis:</p>\r\n<p>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasch_model</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6844,
      "author_name": "jasontigg",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/28/2011 22:02:55",
      "content": "<p>@Yetiman -- superb profile picture :)</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6849,
      "author_name": "morenoh149",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/29/2011 01:23:31",
      "content": "<p>ok, I was confused by the benchmark<em>lmer</em>submission.csv. It had two columns so I thought we could only predict on user_id and the users' history.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6852,
      "author_name": "bhm20038",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "11/29/2011 04:28:34",
      "content": "<p>Also, two thumbs up for</p>\r\n<p>1) This book about lme4 <br>\r\nhttp://lme4.r-forge.r-project.org/book/</p>\r\n<p>2) setting verbose=TRUE in your lmer -breaks the tedium and helps to reassure yourself that your processes haven't gone into complete lockdown.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6901,
      "author_name": "idris24216",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "12/01/2011 19:52:43",
      "content": "<p>@bhm - awesome book link. Any idea on where Chapter 3 is?</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 6904,
      "author_name": "bhm20038",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "12/01/2011 21:07:04",
      "content": "<p>@idris - Glad you found it helpful. My guess is that chapter 3 will be available in the physical book when it comes out. As far as a I can tell these are draft chapters. Wish I had that chapter 3....</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    }
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