Primary Metric:

**Hybrid Score = 0.3 x C-index + 0.7 x (1 - Weighted Brier Score)**

## C-index (30%)
- Measures how well you rank fires by urgency
- Higher is better (0.5 to 1.0)

## Weighted Brier Score (70%)
- Measures calibration at 24h, 48h, 72h
- Uses censor-aware evaluation:
  - Hits: 1 if hit by horizon H, else 0
  - Censored after H: 0
  - Censored before H: excluded
- Final weighted average:
  0.3 x Brier@24h + 0.4 x Brier@48h + 0.3 x Brier@72h

### Why 48h Is Weighted Highest
- 24-48 hours is the strongest operational value zone
- 48h is emphasized because it balances actionable lead time with decision urgency.
- 72h is included for extended planning, but it can be less operationally immediate than earlier horizons.