## Data Limitations and Scarcity
This page describes the data, provided files, their formats, and the required submission format.

The dataset contains 316 wildfire events with verified early-stage perimeter observations and confirmed outcomes.

### What you receive
Features computed strictly from the first five hours after initial perimeter detection. These represent early spread dynamics and spatial relationships to evacuation zones.

###What you predict

Four probabilities for each fire. Each probability represents the likelihood that the fire comes within 5 km of an evacuation zone centroid by the horizon.
prob_12h
prob_24h
prob_48h
prob_72h

###Understanding the labels
This is right-censored survival data.
If a fire reaches an evacuation zone within 72 hours, event is 1 and time_to_hit_hours is observed.
 If a fire does not reach an evacuation zone within 72 hours, event is 0 and time_to_hit_hours is censored at the last available observation.

###Why 316 fires and not 3,000
Most wildfires do not have both requirements needed for reliable labels.
Early perimeter updates within the first five hours for feature extraction

Sufficient follow-up perimeter observations to confirm whether and when the threshold was reached.
This constraint is structural, not accidental. It reflects how real incident data is collected. It also changes what good modeling looks like.

 This competition therefore emphasizes:
- Survival-aware modeling
- Proper handling of censoring
- Calibration over raw accuracy

## Dataset Size
- Train: 221 rows (69 hits, 152 censored)
- Test: 95 rows
- Total fires: 316

## Submission Format
CSV with one row per event_id and four probability columns:
event_id, prob_12h, prob_24h, prob_48h, prob_72h

## Files
- train.csv: Training data with features and targets
- test.csv: Test data with features only (no targets)
- sample_submission.csv: Example submission in the correct format
- metaData.csv: Column definitions and data dictionary

## Columns
### Identifier
- event_id: Anonymized fire event identifier (stable random remap, no temporal meaning)

### Targets (train only)
- time_to_hit_hours: Time from t0+5h until fire comes within 5 km of an evac zone (hours). For censored events (never hit within 72h), this is the last observed time within the window (<= 72).
- event: Event indicator, 1 if fire hit within 72h, 0 if censored (never hit)

### Temporal Coverage (first 5h only)
- num_perimeters_0_5h: Number of perimeters within first 5 hours
- dt_first_last_0_5h: Time span between first and last perimeter (hours)
- low_temporal_resolution_0_5h: Flag, 1 if dt < 0.5h or only 1 perimeter, else 0

### Growth Features
- area_first_ha: Initial fire area at t0 (hectares)
- area_growth_abs_0_5h: Absolute area growth (hectares)
- area_growth_rel_0_5h: Relative area growth (fraction)
- area_growth_rate_ha_per_h: Area growth rate (hectares/hour)
- log1p_area_first: Log(1 + initial area)
- log1p_growth: Log(1 + absolute growth)
- log_area_ratio_0_5h: Log ratio of final to initial area
- relative_growth_0_5h: Relative growth (same as area_growth_rel_0_5h)
- radial_growth_m: Change in effective radius (meters)
- radial_growth_rate_m_per_h: Rate of radial growth (meters/hour)

### Centroid Kinematics
- centroid_displacement_m: Total displacement of fire centroid (meters)
- centroid_speed_m_per_h: Speed of centroid movement (meters/hour)
- spread_bearing_deg: Bearing/direction of fire spread (degrees)
- spread_bearing_sin: Sine of spread bearing (circular encoding)
- spread_bearing_cos: Cosine of spread bearing (circular encoding)

### Distance to Evacuation Zone Centroids
- dist_min_ci_0_5h: Minimum distance to nearest evac zone centroid (meters)
- dist_std_ci_0_5h: Standard deviation of distances
- dist_change_ci_0_5h: Change in distance (d5 - d0, negative = closing)
- dist_slope_ci_0_5h: Linear slope of distance vs time (meters/hour)
- closing_speed_m_per_h: Speed at which fire is closing distance (m/hour, positive = closing)
- closing_speed_abs_m_per_h: Absolute closing speed
- projected_advance_m: Projected advance toward evac zone (d0 - d5)
- dist_accel_m_per_h2: Acceleration in distance change (meters/hour^2)
- dist_fit_r2_0_5h: R^2 of linear fit to distance vs time

### Directionality
- alignment_cos: Cosine of angle between fire motion and evac direction
- alignment_abs: Absolute alignment between fire motion and evac direction (0-1, higher = more aligned)
- cross_track_component: Sideways drift component
- along_track_speed: Speed component toward/away from evac

### Temporal Metadata
- event_start_hour: Hour of day when fire started (0-23)
- event_start_dayofweek: Day of week (0 = Monday, 6 = Sunday)
- event_start_month: Month when fire started (1-12)

## Acronyms and Short Terms
- t0: Fire start time (first perimeter observation)
- 5h: Feature window length (first 5 hours after t0)
- evac: Evacuation zone
- ci: Centroid-to-centroid distance

Full column definitions are in metaData.csv.

# File Descriptions
## train.csv
221 rows.
Contains:
- event_id
- 34 features
- time_to_hit_hours
- event

## test.csv
95 rows.
Contains:
- event_id
- 34 features
(No targets)

## sample_submission.csv
Correct schema example.
95 rows with placeholder probabilities.

## metaData.csv
Data dictionary describing:
- Column meanings
- Feature categories
- Target definitions