{
  "id": 5476,
  "title": "numerical weather prediction models",
  "url": "/competitions/ams-2014-solar-energy-prediction-contest/discussion/5476",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2013-08-21T06:20:37.397Z",
  "votes": null,
  "comment_count": 4,
  "views": 2055,
  "content": "<p>What are these&nbsp;numerical weather prediction models (!= Spline ) ?&nbsp;and what is the most accurate result we've got with this dataset?</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "29122",
      "postDate": "08/21/2013 06:20:37",
      "content": "<p>What are these&nbsp;numerical weather prediction models (!= Spline ) ?&nbsp;and what is the most accurate result we've got with this dataset?</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "29191",
      "postDate": "08/21/2013 20:34:19",
      "content": "<p>I mean what models are used to produce GEFS</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "29192",
      "postDate": "08/21/2013 20:45:35",
      "content": "<p>The GEFS is an ensemble of NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) runs with perturbed initial conditions. The GFS is the US-run global numerical weather prediction model. Details of the GEFS and the GFS can be found in <a href=\"http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/README.GEFS_Reforecast2.pdf\">this document</a>. The <a href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System\">Wikipedia article</a> also has a decent basic summary of what the model is. Do you have any specific questions about the model? The most accurate result on the dataset is whatever is on the leaderboard right now. The data for this contest have not been used operationally.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "29280",
      "postDate": "08/23/2013 02:00:00",
      "content": "<p>[quote=StormMiner;29192]</p>\n<p>The GEFS is an ensemble of NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) runs with perturbed initial conditions. The GFS is the US-run global numerical weather prediction model. Details of the GEFS and the GFS can be found in <a href=\"http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/README.GEFS_Reforecast2.pdf\">this document</a>. The <a href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System\">Wikipedia article</a> also has a decent basic summary of what the model is. Do you have any specific questions about the model? The most accurate result on the dataset is whatever is on the leaderboard right now. The data for this contest have not been used operationally.</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>I plot one year solar energy output, are we allowed to use the chronological information of the solar energy output w.r.t different seasons ? i.e., it tend to output more power in summer times but less in winter.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>EDIT: opps, the fluctuation of 1 mesonet station over 1 year is too much, approx 3e7.&nbsp;</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "29597",
      "postDate": "08/27/2013 21:18:28",
      "content": "<p>You are allowed to derive the seasonal trends from the training data and incorporate that into your model if you wish.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 29191,
      "author_name": "herimanitra",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "08/21/2013 20:34:19",
      "content": "<p>I mean what models are used to produce GEFS</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 29192,
      "author_name": "djgagne",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "08/21/2013 20:45:35",
      "content": "<p>The GEFS is an ensemble of NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) runs with perturbed initial conditions. The GFS is the US-run global numerical weather prediction model. Details of the GEFS and the GFS can be found in <a href=\"http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/README.GEFS_Reforecast2.pdf\">this document</a>. The <a href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System\">Wikipedia article</a> also has a decent basic summary of what the model is. Do you have any specific questions about the model? The most accurate result on the dataset is whatever is on the leaderboard right now. The data for this contest have not been used operationally.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 29280,
      "author_name": "liubenyuan",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "08/23/2013 02:00:00",
      "content": "<p>[quote=StormMiner;29192]</p>\n<p>The GEFS is an ensemble of NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) runs with perturbed initial conditions. The GFS is the US-run global numerical weather prediction model. Details of the GEFS and the GFS can be found in <a href=\"http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/README.GEFS_Reforecast2.pdf\">this document</a>. The <a href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System\">Wikipedia article</a> also has a decent basic summary of what the model is. Do you have any specific questions about the model? The most accurate result on the dataset is whatever is on the leaderboard right now. The data for this contest have not been used operationally.</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>I plot one year solar energy output, are we allowed to use the chronological information of the solar energy output w.r.t different seasons ? i.e., it tend to output more power in summer times but less in winter.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>EDIT: opps, the fluctuation of 1 mesonet station over 1 year is too much, approx 3e7.&nbsp;</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 29597,
      "author_name": "djgagne",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "08/27/2013 21:18:28",
      "content": "<p>You are allowed to derive the seasonal trends from the training data and incorporate that into your model if you wish.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    }
  ],
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}