{
  "id": 5979,
  "title": "Mesonet sites particularities",
  "url": "/competitions/ams-2014-solar-energy-prediction-contest/discussion/5979",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2013-10-08T15:53:56.663Z",
  "votes": null,
  "comment_count": 18,
  "views": 3593,
  "content": "<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.4\">I'd like to ask to competition admin if all Mesonet sites has the same energy production capacity (same physical infrastructure), e.g. the production energy does depend 'only' on environmental conditions, not in any particularity of a station infrastructure.</span></p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "32116",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 15:53:56",
      "content": "<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.4\">I'd like to ask to competition admin if all Mesonet sites has the same energy production capacity (same physical infrastructure), e.g. the production energy does depend 'only' on environmental conditions, not in any particularity of a station infrastructure.</span></p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32117",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 16:02:30",
      "content": "<p>The Mesonet sites all have the same instrumentation for measuring solar radiation and are regularly inspected and calibrated, so the only differences between them should be due to environmental factors.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32120",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 16:27:12",
      "content": "<p>Some stations / Some clusters of stations are systematically more difficult to forecast than others</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32127",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 18:11:14",
      "content": "<p>That is to be expected as Oklahoma's climate and elevation varies dramatically from east to west. The eastern half of the state tends to experience more rainfall, is hillier, and has more trees while the western half of the state is drier, flatter, and windier but with a higher average elevation. Are there particular stations that are significantly harder to forecast than the others?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32144",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 21:14:44",
      "content": "<p>funny, i haven't look at that. good to know...</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32147",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 21:24:18",
      "content": "<p>At least in my case there is no relation between site location and MAE.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32150",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 22:05:45",
      "content": "<p>I didnt measure mae by station, i dont know if focusing on it can bring improvment...</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32154",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 23:49:24",
      "content": "<p>I was about to open a post on this topic. Here is a plot of cross-validation MAE range plotted vs lat-lons. As can be seen, there is a strong correlation between location and MAE, with stations to the west performing much better than stations to the east. It should be noted that the elevation of the westward stations is also much higher.</p>\n<p><br>Do others see similar effects?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32155",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 23:55:01",
      "content": "<p>Do you have the plot code of this in R? If you have i could try to plot it also.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32156",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 23:56:33",
      "content": "<p>Here is&nbsp;a&nbsp;3D&nbsp;plot including station elevations.&nbsp; The same legend as the previous plot.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32157",
      "postDate": "10/08/2013 23:59:04",
      "content": "<p>@Leustagos: Sorry, no, I use Python, not R.&nbsp; The 2D plot was generated using Microsoft Excel.&nbsp; The 3D plot is my first time using matplotlib, which I should say is just wonderful!</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32188",
      "postDate": "10/09/2013 20:19:13",
      "content": "<p>Here is the 3D plot code in Python.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32197",
      "postDate": "10/10/2013 02:27:54",
      "content": "<p>This is how the distribution of my errors looks like</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32210",
      "postDate": "10/10/2013 13:32:19",
      "content": "<p>And this what mine looks like:</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32211",
      "postDate": "10/10/2013 13:45:39",
      "content": "<p>[quote=Euclides Fernandes Filho;32210]</p>\n<p>And this what mine looks like:</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>Did you plot it in R? How did you manage to plot circles? I tried and gave up after a while...</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32214",
      "postDate": "10/10/2013 13:54:25",
      "content": "<p>[quote=Leustagos;32211]</p>\n<p>[quote=Euclides Fernandes Filho;32210]</p>\n<p>And this what mine looks like:</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>Did you plot it in R? How did you manage to plot circles? I tried and gave up after a while...</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>No I'm using matlibplot (scatter plot) in Python.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32219",
      "postDate": "10/10/2013 14:52:52",
      "content": "<p>I've made some improvement adding elevation as circle size and station names too. I also attached the code for anyone who want to play with it.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32235",
      "postDate": "10/11/2013 01:04:59",
      "content": "<p>I got similar results. I tried to manipulate the worst ones with feature engineering but not useful.</p>\n<p>I also found winter is better than summer. MAE is worst on May and August. Also tried to improve it with feature engineering but not useful, either.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "32236",
      "postDate": "10/11/2013 01:26:19",
      "content": "<p>Same situation here. Feature engineering doesn't seem to help in anyway :(</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 32117,
      "author_name": "djgagne",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 16:02:30",
      "content": "<p>The Mesonet sites all have the same instrumentation for measuring solar radiation and are regularly inspected and calibrated, so the only differences between them should be due to environmental factors.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32120,
      "author_name": "herimanitra",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 16:27:12",
      "content": "<p>Some stations / Some clusters of stations are systematically more difficult to forecast than others</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32127,
      "author_name": "djgagne",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 18:11:14",
      "content": "<p>That is to be expected as Oklahoma's climate and elevation varies dramatically from east to west. The eastern half of the state tends to experience more rainfall, is hillier, and has more trees while the western half of the state is drier, flatter, and windier but with a higher average elevation. Are there particular stations that are significantly harder to forecast than the others?</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32144,
      "author_name": "leustagos",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 21:14:44",
      "content": "<p>funny, i haven't look at that. good to know...</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32147,
      "author_name": "euclides",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 21:24:18",
      "content": "<p>At least in my case there is no relation between site location and MAE.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32150,
      "author_name": "leustagos",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 22:05:45",
      "content": "<p>I didnt measure mae by station, i dont know if focusing on it can bring improvment...</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32154,
      "author_name": "kksurugucchi",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 23:49:24",
      "content": "<p>I was about to open a post on this topic. Here is a plot of cross-validation MAE range plotted vs lat-lons. As can be seen, there is a strong correlation between location and MAE, with stations to the west performing much better than stations to the east. It should be noted that the elevation of the westward stations is also much higher.</p>\n<p><br>Do others see similar effects?</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32155,
      "author_name": "leustagos",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 23:55:01",
      "content": "<p>Do you have the plot code of this in R? If you have i could try to plot it also.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32156,
      "author_name": "kksurugucchi",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 23:56:33",
      "content": "<p>Here is&nbsp;a&nbsp;3D&nbsp;plot including station elevations.&nbsp; The same legend as the previous plot.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32157,
      "author_name": "kksurugucchi",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/08/2013 23:59:04",
      "content": "<p>@Leustagos: Sorry, no, I use Python, not R.&nbsp; The 2D plot was generated using Microsoft Excel.&nbsp; The 3D plot is my first time using matplotlib, which I should say is just wonderful!</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32188,
      "author_name": "kksurugucchi",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/09/2013 20:19:13",
      "content": "<p>Here is the 3D plot code in Python.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32197,
      "author_name": "leustagos",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/10/2013 02:27:54",
      "content": "<p>This is how the distribution of my errors looks like</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32210,
      "author_name": "euclides",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/10/2013 13:32:19",
      "content": "<p>And this what mine looks like:</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32211,
      "author_name": "leustagos",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/10/2013 13:45:39",
      "content": "<p>[quote=Euclides Fernandes Filho;32210]</p>\n<p>And this what mine looks like:</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>Did you plot it in R? How did you manage to plot circles? I tried and gave up after a while...</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32214,
      "author_name": "euclides",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/10/2013 13:54:25",
      "content": "<p>[quote=Leustagos;32211]</p>\n<p>[quote=Euclides Fernandes Filho;32210]</p>\n<p>And this what mine looks like:</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>Did you plot it in R? How did you manage to plot circles? I tried and gave up after a while...</p>\n<p>[/quote]</p>\n<p>No I'm using matlibplot (scatter plot) in Python.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32219,
      "author_name": "euclides",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/10/2013 14:52:52",
      "content": "<p>I've made some improvement adding elevation as circle size and station names too. I also attached the code for anyone who want to play with it.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32235,
      "author_name": "kevinhwang",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/11/2013 01:04:59",
      "content": "<p>I got similar results. I tried to manipulate the worst ones with feature engineering but not useful.</p>\n<p>I also found winter is better than summer. MAE is worst on May and August. Also tried to improve it with feature engineering but not useful, either.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 32236,
      "author_name": "euclides",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/11/2013 01:26:19",
      "content": "<p>Same situation here. Feature engineering doesn't seem to help in anyway :(</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    }
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