{
  "id": 360881,
  "title": "odds (in maths)/odds (in horse racing): Big Difference!",
  "url": "/competitions/big-data-derby-2022/discussion/360881",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2022-10-18T17:39:00.385800800Z",
  "votes": 10,
  "comment_count": 4,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>I've read some threads in the discussion forum, etc. I've observed that some mix up the common mathematical odds and odds in horse racing. The difference is substantial, in fact.</p>\n<p><strong>odds&nbsp;(in mathematics)</strong><br>\nUsing the common definition, odds are nothing more than somebody's estimate of the relative chances of two or more competitors. the odds 3-1 means that something or someone has 3&nbsp;chances in 4 of winning.&nbsp;<br>\nBUT: <br>\n<strong>odds (in horse racing)</strong><br>\nIn horse racing, odds have a more specific meaning: a <strong>horse's odds</strong> represent&nbsp;the percentage of the pool wagered on him. They're the figures used to determine the payoffs (for the bettors). The odds you hear are always based on <strong>the win pool.</strong></p>\n<p><strong>For example</strong><br>\nThe odds for two (02) horses(and their jockeys, of course) competing in the same race are : 3-1 and 23-1:&nbsp;</p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>3-1</strong>: This horse (and his jockey) is <strong>more likely to win</strong> because <strong>many people have bet on him (a favourite).</strong>&nbsp;</li>\n<li><strong>23-1</strong>:  means that the horse (and his jockey) has <strong>little chance of winning (a longshot)</strong> , but if he wins, the <strong>payoff will be higher for the bettors.</strong></li>\n</ul>\n<p>===&gt; <strong>Low odds</strong> means that the horse has a lot of money wagered on him to win <strong>(a favourite)</strong><br>\n===&gt;  while <strong>High odds</strong> means less money has been wagered on him to win <strong>(a longshot or underdog…).</strong></p>\n<p><strong>NB:win-pool vs purse: no relation</strong></p>\n<pre><code>The win pool and the purse(feature given in the competition) are unrelated . The win pool is for the bettors (those who are behind the scenes and who have some perception of chance of winning and who are behind the public odds...), but the purse is for winning horses (reward for jockeys and horses who win...)\n</code></pre>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "1993985",
      "postDate": "10/18/2022 17:39:00",
      "content": "<p>I've read some threads in the discussion forum, etc. I've observed that some mix up the common mathematical odds and odds in horse racing. The difference is substantial, in fact.</p>\n<p><strong>odds&nbsp;(in mathematics)</strong><br>\nUsing the common definition, odds are nothing more than somebody's estimate of the relative chances of two or more competitors. the odds 3-1 means that something or someone has 3&nbsp;chances in 4 of winning.&nbsp;<br>\nBUT: <br>\n<strong>odds (in horse racing)</strong><br>\nIn horse racing, odds have a more specific meaning: a <strong>horse's odds</strong> represent&nbsp;the percentage of the pool wagered on him. They're the figures used to determine the payoffs (for the bettors). The odds you hear are always based on <strong>the win pool.</strong></p>\n<p><strong>For example</strong><br>\nThe odds for two (02) horses(and their jockeys, of course) competing in the same race are : 3-1 and 23-1:&nbsp;</p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>3-1</strong>: This horse (and his jockey) is <strong>more likely to win</strong> because <strong>many people have bet on him (a favourite).</strong>&nbsp;</li>\n<li><strong>23-1</strong>:  means that the horse (and his jockey) has <strong>little chance of winning (a longshot)</strong> , but if he wins, the <strong>payoff will be higher for the bettors.</strong></li>\n</ul>\n<p>===&gt; <strong>Low odds</strong> means that the horse has a lot of money wagered on him to win <strong>(a favourite)</strong><br>\n===&gt;  while <strong>High odds</strong> means less money has been wagered on him to win <strong>(a longshot or underdog…).</strong></p>\n<p><strong>NB:win-pool vs purse: no relation</strong></p>\n<pre><code>The win pool and the purse(feature given in the competition) are unrelated . The win pool is for the bettors (those who are behind the scenes and who have some perception of chance of winning and who are behind the public odds...), but the purse is for winning horses (reward for jockeys and horses who win...)\n</code></pre>",
      "rawMarkdown": "I've read some threads in the discussion forum, etc. I've observed that some mix up the common mathematical odds and odds in horse racing. The difference is substantial, in fact.\n\n**odds (in mathematics)**\nUsing the common definition, odds are nothing more than somebody's estimate of the relative chances of two or more competitors. the odds 3-1 means that something or someone has 3 chances in 4 of winning. \nBUT: \n**odds (in horse racing)**\nIn horse racing, odds have a more specific meaning: a **horse's odds** represent the percentage of the pool wagered on him. They're the figures used to determine the payoffs (for the bettors). The odds you hear are always based on **the win pool.**\n\n**For example**\nThe odds for two (02) horses(and their jockeys, of course) competing in the same race are : 3-1 and 23-1: \n- **3-1**: This horse (and his jockey) is **more likely to win** because **many people have bet on him (a favourite).** \n- **23-1**:  means that the horse (and his jockey) has **little chance of winning (a longshot)** , but if he wins, the **payoff will be higher for the bettors.**\n\n===> **Low odds** means that the horse has a lot of money wagered on him to win **(a favourite)**\n===>  while **High odds** means less money has been wagered on him to win **(a longshot or underdog...).**\n\n\n**NB:win-pool vs purse: no relation**\n```\nThe win pool and the purse(feature given in the competition) are unrelated . The win pool is for the bettors (those who are behind the scenes and who have some perception of chance of winning and who are behind the public odds...), but the purse is for winning horses (reward for jockeys and horses who win...)\n\n```",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1994221",
      "postDate": "10/18/2022 21:11:10",
      "content": "<p>Very useful information <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/abireltaief\" target=\"_blank\">@abireltaief</a>, thanks for sharing!</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Very useful information @abireltaief, thanks for sharing!",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1998574",
      "postDate": "10/21/2022 17:45:07",
      "content": "<p>Thank you. So, odds are an indicator of the payout of bets.<br>\nI've thought it was the horse's win rate. Thanks.</p>\n<p>By the way, I sometimes enjoy betting and watching game. <br>\nI usually lost all my money in the end. 😅</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Thank you. So, odds are an indicator of the payout of bets.\nI've thought it was the horse's win rate. Thanks.\n\nBy the way, I sometimes enjoy betting and watching game. \nI usually lost all my money in the end. 😅",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1998810",
      "postDate": "10/21/2022 21:40:48",
      "content": "<p>Thank you. I also have a story about betting (but I have never bet a dollar). I am very interested in the history of gambling problems (which enabled the development of the probability field). Actually, everything began when I entered my 1st international Math Olympiad at the age of 15 (representing my country at the time). One of the challenges presented to us was a reformed version of the <strong>Gambler's Ruin dilemma</strong>. (Although I got the silver medal, I had no idea what it was at the time.)<br>\n<strong>\"Expected Value in Games of Chance\"</strong> was one of the books I bought once I began reading about and researching the subject to get ready for the math Olympiad the following year (it is a translation of the original Latin version). The author? He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer and most significantly the inventor of the pendulum clock, Christian Huygens. Numerous resources on the subject are now available, and there are many other old gambling dilemmas related to the development of probability theories over years…</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Thank you. I also have a story about betting (but I have never bet a dollar). I am very interested in the history of gambling problems (which enabled the development of the probability field). Actually, everything began when I entered my 1st international Math Olympiad at the age of 15 (representing my country at the time). One of the challenges presented to us was a reformed version of the **Gambler's Ruin dilemma**. (Although I got the silver medal, I had no idea what it was at the time.)\n**\"Expected Value in Games of Chance\"** was one of the books I bought once I began reading about and researching the subject to get ready for the math Olympiad the following year (it is a translation of the original Latin version). The author? He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer and most significantly the inventor of the pendulum clock, Christian Huygens. Numerous resources on the subject are now available, and there are many other old gambling dilemmas related to the development of probability theories over years...",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1999831",
      "postDate": "10/22/2022 18:48:37",
      "content": "<p>It's an impressive story. You really like math. 😄<br>\nI also like math. Analyzing data based on math is fun for me.</p>\n<p>I found <strong>Gambler's Ruin dilemma</strong> just before. <br>\nIt is intersting to me.<br>\nI think several studies are possible from a modern point of view based on what Christian Huygens thought.<br>\nOne possible topic is researching <strong>Expected Value in Games of Chance</strong> using <strong>Optimal Stopping Time</strong>.<br>\nI found the research topic Optimal Stopping Time related to gambling.<br>\nI just read an arxiv document, 'When to Quit Gambling, if You Must!' by Sang Hu.</p>\n<p>It might be possible to analyze the betting in this competition using backtesting. <br>\nIf you bet a small amount, it will not affect the game's odds. </p>\n<p>I was trying to figure out what I should do in this competition.<br>\nYour discussions are a great help to me. Thank you.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "It's an impressive story. You really like math. 😄\nI also like math. Analyzing data based on math is fun for me.\n\nI found **Gambler's Ruin dilemma** just before. \nIt is intersting to me.\nI think several studies are possible from a modern point of view based on what Christian Huygens thought.\nOne possible topic is researching **Expected Value in Games of Chance** using **Optimal Stopping Time**.\nI found the research topic Optimal Stopping Time related to gambling.\nI just read an arxiv document, 'When to Quit Gambling, if You Must!' by Sang Hu.\n\nIt might be possible to analyze the betting in this competition using backtesting. \nIf you bet a small amount, it will not affect the game's odds. \n\nI was trying to figure out what I should do in this competition.\nYour discussions are a great help to me. Thank you.",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 1994221,
      "author_name": "ravi20076",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/18/2022 21:11:10",
      "content": "<p>Very useful information <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/abireltaief\" target=\"_blank\">@abireltaief</a>, thanks for sharing!</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 1998574,
      "author_name": "woosungyoon",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "10/21/2022 17:45:07",
      "content": "<p>Thank you. So, odds are an indicator of the payout of bets.<br>\nI've thought it was the horse's win rate. Thanks.</p>\n<p>By the way, I sometimes enjoy betting and watching game. <br>\nI usually lost all my money in the end. 😅</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 1998810,
          "author_name": "",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "10/21/2022 21:40:48",
          "content": "<p>Thank you. I also have a story about betting (but I have never bet a dollar). I am very interested in the history of gambling problems (which enabled the development of the probability field). Actually, everything began when I entered my 1st international Math Olympiad at the age of 15 (representing my country at the time). One of the challenges presented to us was a reformed version of the <strong>Gambler's Ruin dilemma</strong>. (Although I got the silver medal, I had no idea what it was at the time.)<br>\n<strong>\"Expected Value in Games of Chance\"</strong> was one of the books I bought once I began reading about and researching the subject to get ready for the math Olympiad the following year (it is a translation of the original Latin version). The author? He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer and most significantly the inventor of the pendulum clock, Christian Huygens. Numerous resources on the subject are now available, and there are many other old gambling dilemmas related to the development of probability theories over years…</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 1999831,
          "author_name": "woosungyoon",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "10/22/2022 18:48:37",
          "content": "<p>It's an impressive story. You really like math. 😄<br>\nI also like math. Analyzing data based on math is fun for me.</p>\n<p>I found <strong>Gambler's Ruin dilemma</strong> just before. <br>\nIt is intersting to me.<br>\nI think several studies are possible from a modern point of view based on what Christian Huygens thought.<br>\nOne possible topic is researching <strong>Expected Value in Games of Chance</strong> using <strong>Optimal Stopping Time</strong>.<br>\nI found the research topic Optimal Stopping Time related to gambling.<br>\nI just read an arxiv document, 'When to Quit Gambling, if You Must!' by Sang Hu.</p>\n<p>It might be possible to analyze the betting in this competition using backtesting. <br>\nIf you bet a small amount, it will not affect the game's odds. </p>\n<p>I was trying to figure out what I should do in this competition.<br>\nYour discussions are a great help to me. Thank you.</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "1993985": "I've read some threads in the discussion forum, etc. I've observed that some mix up the common mathematical odds and odds in horse racing. The difference is substantial, in fact.\n\n**odds (in mathematics)**\nUsing the common definition, odds are nothing more than somebody's estimate of the relative chances of two or more competitors. the odds 3-1 means that something or someone has 3 chances in 4 of winning. \nBUT: \n**odds (in horse racing)**\nIn horse racing, odds have a more specific meaning: a **horse's odds** represent the percentage of the pool wagered on him. They're the figures used to determine the payoffs (for the bettors). The odds you hear are always based on **the win pool.**\n\n**For example**\nThe odds for two (02) horses(and their jockeys, of course) competing in the same race are : 3-1 and 23-1: \n- **3-1**: This horse (and his jockey) is **more likely to win** because **many people have bet on him (a favourite).** \n- **23-1**:  means that the horse (and his jockey) has **little chance of winning (a longshot)** , but if he wins, the **payoff will be higher for the bettors.**\n\n===> **Low odds** means that the horse has a lot of money wagered on him to win **(a favourite)**\n===>  while **High odds** means less money has been wagered on him to win **(a longshot or underdog...).**\n\n\n**NB:win-pool vs purse: no relation**\n```\nThe win pool and the purse(feature given in the competition) are unrelated . The win pool is for the bettors (those who are behind the scenes and who have some perception of chance of winning and who are behind the public odds...), but the purse is for winning horses (reward for jockeys and horses who win...)\n\n```",
    "1994221": "Very useful information @abireltaief, thanks for sharing!",
    "1998574": "Thank you. So, odds are an indicator of the payout of bets.\nI've thought it was the horse's win rate. Thanks.\n\nBy the way, I sometimes enjoy betting and watching game. \nI usually lost all my money in the end. 😅",
    "1998810": "Thank you. I also have a story about betting (but I have never bet a dollar). I am very interested in the history of gambling problems (which enabled the development of the probability field). Actually, everything began when I entered my 1st international Math Olympiad at the age of 15 (representing my country at the time). One of the challenges presented to us was a reformed version of the **Gambler's Ruin dilemma**. (Although I got the silver medal, I had no idea what it was at the time.)\n**\"Expected Value in Games of Chance\"** was one of the books I bought once I began reading about and researching the subject to get ready for the math Olympiad the following year (it is a translation of the original Latin version). The author? He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer and most significantly the inventor of the pendulum clock, Christian Huygens. Numerous resources on the subject are now available, and there are many other old gambling dilemmas related to the development of probability theories over years...",
    "1999831": "It's an impressive story. You really like math. 😄\nI also like math. Analyzing data based on math is fun for me.\n\nI found **Gambler's Ruin dilemma** just before. \nIt is intersting to me.\nI think several studies are possible from a modern point of view based on what Christian Huygens thought.\nOne possible topic is researching **Expected Value in Games of Chance** using **Optimal Stopping Time**.\nI found the research topic Optimal Stopping Time related to gambling.\nI just read an arxiv document, 'When to Quit Gambling, if You Must!' by Sang Hu.\n\nIt might be possible to analyze the betting in this competition using backtesting. \nIf you bet a small amount, it will not affect the game's odds. \n\nI was trying to figure out what I should do in this competition.\nYour discussions are a great help to me. Thank you."
  },
  "source": "meta"
}