![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8412510%2F9e4fad5e63122dff9aa5af28d1b03cf0%2Ffinal_25.gif?generation=1669510741094698&alt=media\")
Hello All,
\nIt was a great competition with great learning experience, I really enjoyed it and I loved everyone's work in all various derby racing domains. Moreover, I would like your feedback on the real-time prediction of 2022 races that happened on Nov 25, 26, and 27, and I also have a few further ideas(i.e Sex, Gene of Horse, etc) to enhance the outcome, however, I would really appreciate your feedback on the below real-time predictions.
\n.
\n
![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8412510%2F46fc8477fe5f9bb99d764e4844b548bf%2Ffinal_25.png?generation=1669511065550898&alt=media\")
![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8412510%2Ff0d46bce68227cf3afae4b32459453bd%2FActual_25.png?generation=1669511362797462&alt=media\")
Carmouche Kendrick is predicted by the betting odds to win the race with a 33.33% margin of victory. However, it is very risky to bet, according to the mathematical model.
The betting odds anticipated Jose Gomez to win by 5.56%. But he really finished third, and the model provided us with a calculated risk to bet on him in Win, Show, or Place.
Irad Ortiz won, as predicted by our model, but it was not a wise bet to increase profits. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.
Last but not least, Herman's calculated risk was 12.92%. Normally, we wager on Win, Place, and Show, and in this situation, it doesn't matter.
Also, there are some limitations here. Junior Alvarado, for instance, came at second place, and I think we could improve things if we had more data on the crucial racing parameters. Similar to this, I foresaw Race 1 of November 26 and got positive outcomes with Morning Line Odds.
\n![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8412510%2F95d4c0932274ba0667e99e8a0ddc58e1%2Ffinal_26.png?generation=1669521052525195&alt=media\")
![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8412510%2F89f05750184d478f643d5f5c0534c146%2FActual_26.png?generation=1669521342999843&alt=media\")
Dylan Davis won, as predicted by our model, but it was not a wise bet to increase profits. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.
The model provided calculated risk for Carmouche Kendrick and Gomez Jose and indeed they came in Win, Place or Show. However, our model gave us close results with other options but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will add some other crucial variables to enhance the outcome in the future.
![\"\"](\"https://i.postimg.cc/fLBXLVHb/final-27.gif\")
![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8412510%2Fdb3041cd19d9a793c187884d057ccb2b%2Ffinal_27.png?generation=1669603448695101&alt=media\")
![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8412510%2F43fd1be4afdc1998d69665829c6c3b75%2FActual_27.png?generation=1669603567952745&alt=media\")
As per a simple math model it said Daylan Davis will be in Win, Place, or Show but it was not a wise bet to increase profits. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.
Math model also provided the calculated risk that Castellano Javier will be in Win, Place, or Show and indeed he came in the first place. However, our model gave us close results with other options but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will add some other crucial variables to enhance the outcome in the future.
For 3 consecutive days, the mathematical model gave positive calculated risks in real-time. Also, in the future, I will come up with a little advanced model but with simple logic that anyone can understand. However, I would value your opinion on this discussion. Thank you.
\nNote: Data used to predict the result doesn't use any of the competition data by any means
", "messages": [ { "id": "2045082", "postDate": "11/27/2022 04:06:53", "content": "Hello All,
\nIt was a great competition with great learning experience, I really enjoyed it and I loved everyone's work in all various derby racing domains. Moreover, I would like your feedback on the real-time prediction of 2022 races that happened on Nov 25, 26, and 27, and I also have a few further ideas(i.e Sex, Gene of Horse, etc) to enhance the outcome, however, I would really appreciate your feedback on the below real-time predictions.
\n.
\n
Carmouche Kendrick is predicted by the betting odds to win the race with a 33.33% margin of victory. However, it is very risky to bet, according to the mathematical model.
The betting odds anticipated Jose Gomez to win by 5.56%. But he really finished third, and the model provided us with a calculated risk to bet on him in Win, Show, or Place.
Irad Ortiz won, as predicted by our model, but it was not a wise bet to increase profits. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.
Last but not least, Herman's calculated risk was 12.92%. Normally, we wager on Win, Place, and Show, and in this situation, it doesn't matter.
Also, there are some limitations here. Junior Alvarado, for instance, came at second place, and I think we could improve things if we had more data on the crucial racing parameters. Similar to this, I foresaw Race 1 of November 26 and got positive outcomes with Morning Line Odds.
\n
Dylan Davis won, as predicted by our model, but it was not a wise bet to increase profits. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.
The model provided calculated risk for Carmouche Kendrick and Gomez Jose and indeed they came in Win, Place or Show. However, our model gave us close results with other options but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will add some other crucial variables to enhance the outcome in the future.
As per a simple math model it said Daylan Davis will be in Win, Place, or Show but it was not a wise bet to increase profits. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.
Math model also provided the calculated risk that Castellano Javier will be in Win, Place, or Show and indeed he came in the first place. However, our model gave us close results with other options but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will add some other crucial variables to enhance the outcome in the future.
For 3 consecutive days, the mathematical model gave positive calculated risks in real-time. Also, in the future, I will come up with a little advanced model but with simple logic that anyone can understand. However, I would value your opinion on this discussion. Thank you.
\nNote: Data used to predict the result doesn't use any of the competition data by any means
", "rawMarkdown": "Hello All, \n\nIt was a **great competition** with **great learning experience**, I really enjoyed it and I loved everyone's work in all various derby racing domains. Moreover, I would like your **feedback** on the real-time prediction of **2022** races that happened on **Nov 25**, **26**, and **27**, and I also have a few further ideas(i.e Sex, Gene of Horse, etc) to enhance the outcome, however, I would really appreciate your feedback on the below real-time predictions.\n\n# Submitted Competition Notebook is [**Here !**](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/key-to-win-the-bet-on-horses-with-math-model)\n\n.\n\n## Real-time Prediction of Nov 25 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Prediction Result of Nov 25 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Actual Result of Nov 25 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Key Findings of 25 Nov Race - 1\n\n1. **Carmouche Kendrick** is **predicted** by the **betting odds** to win the race with a **33.33%** margin of victory. However, it is **very risky** to bet, **according** to the **mathematical model**.\n\n2. The **betting odds anticipated Jose Gomez** to win by **5.56%**. But he really **finished third**, and the model **provided** us with a **calculated risk** to **bet** on him in **Win**, **Show**, or **Place**.\n\n3. **Irad Ortiz won**, as predicted by our model, **but it was not a wise bet to increase profits**. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.\n\n4. Last but not least, Herman's calculated risk was 12.92%. **Normally, we wager on Win**, **Place**, and **Show,** and in this situation, it doesn't matter.\n\nAlso, there are some **limitations** here. Junior Alvarado, for instance, came at second place, and I think we could improve things if we had more data on the crucial racing parameters. Similar to this, I foresaw Race 1 of November 26 and got positive outcomes with Morning Line Odds.\n\n## Prediction Result of Nov 26 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Actual Result of Nov 26 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Key Findings of 26 Nov Race - 1\n\n1. **Dylan Davis won**, as predicted by our model, **but it was not a wise bet to increase profits**. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.\n\n2. The model provided calculated risk for **Carmouche Kendrick** and **Gomez Jose** and indeed they came in **Win**, **Place** or **Show**. However, our model gave us **close results** with **other options** but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will **add** some other **crucial variables** to **enhance** the outcome in the **future**.\n\n## Real-time Prediction of Nov 27 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Prediction Result of Nov 27 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Actual Result of Nov 27 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Key Findings of 27 Nov Race - 1\n\n1. As per a simple math model it said **Daylan Davis** will be in **Win**, **Place**, or **Show** but it was not a wise bet to **increase profits**. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.\n\n2. Math model also provided the calculated risk that **Castellano Javier** will be in **Win**, **Place**, or **Show** and indeed he came in the first place. However, our model gave us **close results** with **other options** but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will **add** some other **crucial variables** to **enhance** the outcome in the **future**.\n\n## Key Findings Summary\n\nFor **3 consecutive days**, the mathematical model **gave positive calculated risks** in real-time. Also, in the future, I will come up with a little advanced model but with simple logic that anyone can understand. However, I would value your opinion on this discussion. Thank you.\n\n**Note**: *Data used to predict the result doesn't use any of the competition data by any means*", "votes": null }, { "id": "2045464", "postDate": "11/27/2022 10:55:50", "content": "Is ur model jockey based or jockey & horse based?
\nfrom ur prediction result dashboard it seems it is jockey based!
ur results are good. But what if u scrapped some recent data and train on it? How does ur model work? could u give us some insights? i checked ur public page and didnt got any nb regarding this topic.
", "rawMarkdown": "Is ur model jockey based or jockey & horse based? \nfrom ur prediction result dashboard it seems it is jockey based! \n\nur results are good. But what if u scrapped some recent data and train on it? How does ur model work? could u give us some insights? i checked ur public page and didnt got any nb regarding this topic.", "votes": null }, { "id": "2046230", "postDate": "11/28/2022 03:12:00", "content": "Hello @turebogale ,
\nBasically, the prediction result uses the same algorithm that I have submitted for competition here look for v1. I have just made this Flask app for user experience and interaction. Secondly, the model shown in the discussion is based on a jockey however, I have prepared a model with multiple combinations too (eg: Horse and Jockey, etc.)
\nAdditionally, I manually prepared the data, which covers the most recent races as well as those from the previous several years. This data is freely accessible to the public, and I'm now working on automating the ingestion of data and working on simple Math Model Enhancement as Machine Learning Model itself is also a kind of math model that performs calculations.
", "rawMarkdown": "Hello @turebogale ,\n\nBasically, the **prediction result uses the same algorithm** that I have submitted for competition [**here**](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/key-to-win-the-bet-on-horses-with-math-model) look for **v1**. I have just made this Flask app for user experience and interaction. Secondly, the model shown in the discussion is based on a jockey however, I have prepared a model with multiple combinations too (eg: Horse and Jockey, etc.)\n\nAdditionally, I manually prepared the data, which covers the most recent races as well as those from the previous several years. This data is freely accessible to the public, and I'm now working on automating the ingestion of data and working on simple Math Model Enhancement as Machine Learning Model itself is also a kind of math model that performs calculations.", "votes": null }, { "id": "2047527", "postDate": "11/28/2022 20:43:09", "content": "@kushtrivedi14728 i can see that u have included horse speed in ur nb. specifically i liked the way u coordinated horse speed with jockey path.
\nits a well done analysis.
Thank you for such words @turebogale and also the I have explained horse speed and jockey path with Evaluation Metric in detail here. I appreciate your time for looking my NB. Thank you.
", "rawMarkdown": "Thank you for such words @turebogale and also the I have explained **horse speed** and **jockey path** with **Evaluation Metric** in detail [**here**](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/advance-eda-with-ml-big-data-derby). I appreciate your time for looking my NB. Thank you.", "votes": null } ], "comments": [ { "id": 2045464, "author_name": "turebogale", "author_url": "", "post_date": "11/27/2022 10:55:50", "content": "Is ur model jockey based or jockey & horse based?
\nfrom ur prediction result dashboard it seems it is jockey based!
ur results are good. But what if u scrapped some recent data and train on it? How does ur model work? could u give us some insights? i checked ur public page and didnt got any nb regarding this topic.
", "votes": null, "replies": [ { "id": 2046230, "author_name": "kushtrivedi14728", "author_url": "", "post_date": "11/28/2022 03:12:00", "content": "Hello @turebogale ,
\nBasically, the prediction result uses the same algorithm that I have submitted for competition here look for v1. I have just made this Flask app for user experience and interaction. Secondly, the model shown in the discussion is based on a jockey however, I have prepared a model with multiple combinations too (eg: Horse and Jockey, etc.)
\nAdditionally, I manually prepared the data, which covers the most recent races as well as those from the previous several years. This data is freely accessible to the public, and I'm now working on automating the ingestion of data and working on simple Math Model Enhancement as Machine Learning Model itself is also a kind of math model that performs calculations.
", "votes": null, "replies": [] }, { "id": 2047527, "author_name": "turebogale", "author_url": "", "post_date": "11/28/2022 20:43:09", "content": "@kushtrivedi14728 i can see that u have included horse speed in ur nb. specifically i liked the way u coordinated horse speed with jockey path.
\nits a well done analysis.
Thank you for such words @turebogale and also the I have explained horse speed and jockey path with Evaluation Metric in detail here. I appreciate your time for looking my NB. Thank you.
", "votes": null, "replies": [] } ] } ], "raw_markdown_by_id": { "2045082": "Hello All, \n\nIt was a **great competition** with **great learning experience**, I really enjoyed it and I loved everyone's work in all various derby racing domains. Moreover, I would like your **feedback** on the real-time prediction of **2022** races that happened on **Nov 25**, **26**, and **27**, and I also have a few further ideas(i.e Sex, Gene of Horse, etc) to enhance the outcome, however, I would really appreciate your feedback on the below real-time predictions.\n\n# Submitted Competition Notebook is [**Here !**](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/key-to-win-the-bet-on-horses-with-math-model)\n\n.\n\n## Real-time Prediction of Nov 25 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Prediction Result of Nov 25 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Actual Result of Nov 25 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Key Findings of 25 Nov Race - 1\n\n1. **Carmouche Kendrick** is **predicted** by the **betting odds** to win the race with a **33.33%** margin of victory. However, it is **very risky** to bet, **according** to the **mathematical model**.\n\n2. The **betting odds anticipated Jose Gomez** to win by **5.56%**. But he really **finished third**, and the model **provided** us with a **calculated risk** to **bet** on him in **Win**, **Show**, or **Place**.\n\n3. **Irad Ortiz won**, as predicted by our model, **but it was not a wise bet to increase profits**. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.\n\n4. Last but not least, Herman's calculated risk was 12.92%. **Normally, we wager on Win**, **Place**, and **Show,** and in this situation, it doesn't matter.\n\nAlso, there are some **limitations** here. Junior Alvarado, for instance, came at second place, and I think we could improve things if we had more data on the crucial racing parameters. Similar to this, I foresaw Race 1 of November 26 and got positive outcomes with Morning Line Odds.\n\n## Prediction Result of Nov 26 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Actual Result of Nov 26 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Key Findings of 26 Nov Race - 1\n\n1. **Dylan Davis won**, as predicted by our model, **but it was not a wise bet to increase profits**. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.\n\n2. The model provided calculated risk for **Carmouche Kendrick** and **Gomez Jose** and indeed they came in **Win**, **Place** or **Show**. However, our model gave us **close results** with **other options** but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will **add** some other **crucial variables** to **enhance** the outcome in the **future**.\n\n## Real-time Prediction of Nov 27 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Prediction Result of Nov 27 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Actual Result of Nov 27 Race-1\n\n\n\n#### Key Findings of 27 Nov Race - 1\n\n1. As per a simple math model it said **Daylan Davis** will be in **Win**, **Place**, or **Show** but it was not a wise bet to **increase profits**. Moreover, we can bet on the side of safety.\n\n2. Math model also provided the calculated risk that **Castellano Javier** will be in **Win**, **Place**, or **Show** and indeed he came in the first place. However, our model gave us **close results** with **other options** but if someone who has knowledge of the game can easily get the right option to pick also I will **add** some other **crucial variables** to **enhance** the outcome in the **future**.\n\n## Key Findings Summary\n\nFor **3 consecutive days**, the mathematical model **gave positive calculated risks** in real-time. Also, in the future, I will come up with a little advanced model but with simple logic that anyone can understand. However, I would value your opinion on this discussion. Thank you.\n\n**Note**: *Data used to predict the result doesn't use any of the competition data by any means*", "2045464": "Is ur model jockey based or jockey & horse based? \nfrom ur prediction result dashboard it seems it is jockey based! \n\nur results are good. But what if u scrapped some recent data and train on it? How does ur model work? could u give us some insights? i checked ur public page and didnt got any nb regarding this topic.", "2046230": "Hello @turebogale ,\n\nBasically, the **prediction result uses the same algorithm** that I have submitted for competition [**here**](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/key-to-win-the-bet-on-horses-with-math-model) look for **v1**. I have just made this Flask app for user experience and interaction. Secondly, the model shown in the discussion is based on a jockey however, I have prepared a model with multiple combinations too (eg: Horse and Jockey, etc.)\n\nAdditionally, I manually prepared the data, which covers the most recent races as well as those from the previous several years. This data is freely accessible to the public, and I'm now working on automating the ingestion of data and working on simple Math Model Enhancement as Machine Learning Model itself is also a kind of math model that performs calculations.", "2047527": "kushtrivedi14728 i can see that u have included horse speed in ur nb. specifically i liked the way u coordinated horse speed with jockey path. \nits a well done analysis.", "2047654": "Thank you for such words @turebogale and also the I have explained **horse speed** and **jockey path** with **Evaluation Metric** in detail [**here**](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/advance-eda-with-ml-big-data-derby). I appreciate your time for looking my NB. Thank you." }, "source": "meta" }