{ "id": 370658, "title": "The Cigar Mile Story", "url": "/competitions/big-data-derby-2022/discussion/370658", "author_name": "Kush Trivedi", "post_date": "2022-12-05T19:00:48.802000", "votes": 1, "comment_count": 0, "views": 0, "content": "

Story of The Cigar Mile Race

\n

Hello all,

\n

I would like to share real-time prediction made by competition-submitted (before the official deadline) math model for the race \"Cigar Mile\" that happened on Dec 03, 2022. I would really appreciate your opinion on the following findings. Thank you.

\n

📌 Inference:

\n

\n\n- So, basically, I am testing the competition-submitted math model on daily basis and trying to improve it. However, I found that the competition-submitted math model behave strangely in the same pattern from the past few days and results in a big blunder, and was thinking that I am lacking crucial data and indeed I do.

\n\n- Furthermore, I was concerned as to why the model was predicting this way, so I conducted some careful study and discovered that all of the time jockeys who are in the lead lose their lead at the exit point of the final curve and making a significant mistake by not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement. Instead, pulling the reins and it directly impacts the horse's speed.

\n\n- However, though I am not a Jockey but as an Equestrian I also understand when we get little off balance we always try to pull the reins OR to prevent some collision, OR it may be an intentional etc and similar thing can also be seen in \"Cigar Mile\" race.\n

\n


\n

📌 Prediction with ML Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n\n- By providing the ML Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n

\n\n\n\n\n

\n\nKey Findings:
\n 1. According to the estimated findings, Rosario Joel had the best chance of winning from both outcomes (ML Odds and Math Model), but the math model gave a risk to wager on our own.

\n\n 2. Second, the Math model provided us with a calculated risk for Irad Ortiz and Luis Batista where Irad Ortiz was a safe bet however the good bet to make money was on Luis Batista. Unfortunately, the outcomes were different in the end but have analyzed what actually happened.\n

\n


\n

📌 Prediction with Ongoing Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n\n- By providing the Current Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\nKey Findings:
\n 1. After providing live odds to the math model we had some different results where it says Luis Saez also has a good chance of winning.

\n 2. Moreover if we combine both of the results we can come up with a calculated guess with the following.
\n - Irad Ortiz (White Abarrio)
\n - Luis Batista (Outlier)
\n - Luis Saez (Get Her Number)

\n 3. However, in the final result we got 2 out of three correct guesses but I was curious to know why did Luis Batista lose when he already had a lead so I found out the reason after extensive research of the race.\n

\n


\n

📌 Mistake Analysis

\n\n

Mistake 1

\n\n\n\n

Mistake 2

\n\n\n\n

Mistake 3

\n\n\n\nMistake Summary:
\n - Not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement by pulling the reins outwards.

\n - If Luis Batista didn't have made those mistakes then the math model would have predicted a decent guess.

\n - However, what could be the way to avoid these mistakes? Let's look at the bottom video to have a clear understanding.

\n - Lastly, by pulling the rain in this manner. Bits may hurt the horse sometimes.

\n\n

Made Same Mistake Thrice

\n\n\n\n

📌 Overcome Common Mistake

\n\n- This is how we allow the horse to run naturally by having our hands on the horse's neck and holding the reins with 3 fingers and a pinky grip.\n\n\n\n
\n

I would appreciate your feedback on this thank you.

", "messages": [ { "id": 2056129, "postDate": "2022-12-05T19:00:48.803Z", "content": "

Story of The Cigar Mile Race

\n

Hello all,

\n

I would like to share real-time prediction made by competition-submitted (before the official deadline) math model for the race \"Cigar Mile\" that happened on Dec 03, 2022. I would really appreciate your opinion on the following findings. Thank you.

\n

📌 Inference:

\n

\n\n- So, basically, I am testing the competition-submitted math model on daily basis and trying to improve it. However, I found that the competition-submitted math model behave strangely in the same pattern from the past few days and results in a big blunder, and was thinking that I am lacking crucial data and indeed I do.

\n\n- Furthermore, I was concerned as to why the model was predicting this way, so I conducted some careful study and discovered that all of the time jockeys who are in the lead lose their lead at the exit point of the final curve and making a significant mistake by not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement. Instead, pulling the reins and it directly impacts the horse's speed.

\n\n- However, though I am not a Jockey but as an Equestrian I also understand when we get little off balance we always try to pull the reins OR to prevent some collision, OR it may be an intentional etc and similar thing can also be seen in \"Cigar Mile\" race.\n

\n


\n

📌 Prediction with ML Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n\n- By providing the ML Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n

\n\n\n\n\n

\n\nKey Findings:
\n 1. According to the estimated findings, Rosario Joel had the best chance of winning from both outcomes (ML Odds and Math Model), but the math model gave a risk to wager on our own.

\n\n 2. Second, the Math model provided us with a calculated risk for Irad Ortiz and Luis Batista where Irad Ortiz was a safe bet however the good bet to make money was on Luis Batista. Unfortunately, the outcomes were different in the end but have analyzed what actually happened.\n

\n


\n

📌 Prediction with Ongoing Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n\n- By providing the Current Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\nKey Findings:
\n 1. After providing live odds to the math model we had some different results where it says Luis Saez also has a good chance of winning.

\n 2. Moreover if we combine both of the results we can come up with a calculated guess with the following.
\n - Irad Ortiz (White Abarrio)
\n - Luis Batista (Outlier)
\n - Luis Saez (Get Her Number)

\n 3. However, in the final result we got 2 out of three correct guesses but I was curious to know why did Luis Batista lose when he already had a lead so I found out the reason after extensive research of the race.\n

\n


\n

📌 Mistake Analysis

\n\n

Mistake 1

\n\n\n\n

Mistake 2

\n\n\n\n

Mistake 3

\n\n\n\nMistake Summary:
\n - Not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement by pulling the reins outwards.

\n - If Luis Batista didn't have made those mistakes then the math model would have predicted a decent guess.

\n - However, what could be the way to avoid these mistakes? Let's look at the bottom video to have a clear understanding.

\n - Lastly, by pulling the rain in this manner. Bits may hurt the horse sometimes.

\n\n

Made Same Mistake Thrice

\n\n\n\n

📌 Overcome Common Mistake

\n\n- This is how we allow the horse to run naturally by having our hands on the horse's neck and holding the reins with 3 fingers and a pinky grip.\n\n\n\n
\n

I would appreciate your feedback on this thank you.

", "rawMarkdown": "

Story of The Cigar Mile Race

\n\nHello all,\n\nI would like to share real-time prediction made by competition-submitted (before the official deadline) [math model](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/key-to-win-the-bet-on-horses-with-math-model) for the race \"[Cigar Mile](https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU120322USA9.pdf)\" that happened on Dec 03, 2022. I would really appreciate your opinion on the following findings. Thank you.\n\n\n

📌 Inference:

\n

\n\n- So, basically, I am testing the competition-submitted math model on daily basis and trying to improve it. However, I found that the competition-submitted math model behave strangely in the same pattern from the past few days and results in a big blunder, and was thinking that I am lacking crucial data and indeed I do.

\n \n- Furthermore, I was concerned as to why the model was predicting this way, so I conducted some careful study and discovered that all of the time jockeys who are in the lead lose their lead at the exit point of the final curve and making a significant mistake by not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement. Instead, pulling the reins and it directly impacts the horse's speed.

\n \n- However, though I am not a Jockey but as an Equestrian I also understand when we get little off balance we always try to pull the reins OR to prevent some collision, OR it may be an intentional etc and similar thing can also be seen in \"Cigar Mile\" race.\n

\n\n
\n\n

📌 Prediction with ML Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n \n- By providing the ML Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n

\n \n
\n\n \n

\n \nKey Findings:
\n 1. According to the estimated findings, Rosario Joel had the best chance of winning from both outcomes (ML Odds and Math Model), but the math model gave a risk to wager on our own.

\n \n 2. Second, the Math model provided us with a calculated risk for Irad Ortiz and Luis Batista where Irad Ortiz was a safe bet however the good bet to make money was on Luis Batista. Unfortunately, the outcomes were different in the end but have analyzed what actually happened.\n

\n\n
\n\n

📌 Prediction with Ongoing Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n \n- By providing the Current Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n \n

\n \n
\n \n
\n \n \n

\n \nKey Findings:
\n 1. After providing live odds to the math model we had some different results where it says Luis Saez also has a good chance of winning.

\n 2. Moreover if we combine both of the results we can come up with a calculated guess with the following.
\n - Irad Ortiz (White Abarrio)
\n - Luis Batista (Outlier)
\n - Luis Saez (Get Her Number)

\n 3. However, in the final result we got 2 out of three correct guesses but I was curious to know why did Luis Batista lose when he already had a lead so I found out the reason after extensive research of the race.\n

\n\n
\n\n

📌 Mistake Analysis

\n\n

Mistake 1

\n \n
\n \n

Mistake 2

\n \n
\n \n

Mistake 3

\n\n
\n \nMistake Summary:
\n - Not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement by pulling the reins outwards.

\n - If Luis Batista didn't have made those mistakes then the math model would have predicted a decent guess.

\n - However, what could be the way to avoid these mistakes? Let's look at the bottom video to have a clear understanding.

\n - Lastly, by pulling the rain in this manner. Bits may hurt the horse sometimes.

\n \n

Made Same Mistake Thrice

\n\n
\n \n

📌 Overcome Common Mistake

\n \n- This is how we allow the horse to run naturally by having our hands on the horse's neck and holding the reins with 3 fingers and a pinky grip.\n \n
\n \n
\n\nI would appreciate your feedback on this thank you. ", "votes": 1 } ], "comments": [], "raw_markdown_by_id": { "2056129": "

Story of The Cigar Mile Race

\n\nHello all,\n\nI would like to share real-time prediction made by competition-submitted (before the official deadline) [math model](https://www.kaggle.com/code/kushtrivedi14728/key-to-win-the-bet-on-horses-with-math-model) for the race \"[Cigar Mile](https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU120322USA9.pdf)\" that happened on Dec 03, 2022. I would really appreciate your opinion on the following findings. Thank you.\n\n\n

📌 Inference:

\n

\n\n- So, basically, I am testing the competition-submitted math model on daily basis and trying to improve it. However, I found that the competition-submitted math model behave strangely in the same pattern from the past few days and results in a big blunder, and was thinking that I am lacking crucial data and indeed I do.

\n \n- Furthermore, I was concerned as to why the model was predicting this way, so I conducted some careful study and discovered that all of the time jockeys who are in the lead lose their lead at the exit point of the final curve and making a significant mistake by not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement. Instead, pulling the reins and it directly impacts the horse's speed.

\n \n- However, though I am not a Jockey but as an Equestrian I also understand when we get little off balance we always try to pull the reins OR to prevent some collision, OR it may be an intentional etc and similar thing can also be seen in \"Cigar Mile\" race.\n

\n\n
\n\n

📌 Prediction with ML Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n \n- By providing the ML Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n

\n \n
\n\n \n

\n \nKey Findings:
\n 1. According to the estimated findings, Rosario Joel had the best chance of winning from both outcomes (ML Odds and Math Model), but the math model gave a risk to wager on our own.

\n \n 2. Second, the Math model provided us with a calculated risk for Irad Ortiz and Luis Batista where Irad Ortiz was a safe bet however the good bet to make money was on Luis Batista. Unfortunately, the outcomes were different in the end but have analyzed what actually happened.\n

\n\n
\n\n

📌 Prediction with Ongoing Odds of Cigar Mile:

\n

\n \n- By providing the Current Odds to Math Model it gave the following results in real-time\n \n

\n \n
\n \n
\n \n \n

\n \nKey Findings:
\n 1. After providing live odds to the math model we had some different results where it says Luis Saez also has a good chance of winning.

\n 2. Moreover if we combine both of the results we can come up with a calculated guess with the following.
\n - Irad Ortiz (White Abarrio)
\n - Luis Batista (Outlier)
\n - Luis Saez (Get Her Number)

\n 3. However, in the final result we got 2 out of three correct guesses but I was curious to know why did Luis Batista lose when he already had a lead so I found out the reason after extensive research of the race.\n

\n\n
\n\n

📌 Mistake Analysis

\n\n

Mistake 1

\n \n
\n \n

Mistake 2

\n \n
\n \n

Mistake 3

\n\n
\n \nMistake Summary:
\n - Not allowing the horse to run naturally in gallop or canter movement by pulling the reins outwards.

\n - If Luis Batista didn't have made those mistakes then the math model would have predicted a decent guess.

\n - However, what could be the way to avoid these mistakes? Let's look at the bottom video to have a clear understanding.

\n - Lastly, by pulling the rain in this manner. Bits may hurt the horse sometimes.

\n \n

Made Same Mistake Thrice

\n\n
\n \n

📌 Overcome Common Mistake

\n \n- This is how we allow the horse to run naturally by having our hands on the horse's neck and holding the reins with 3 fingers and a pinky grip.\n \n
\n \n
\n\nI would appreciate your feedback on this thank you. " } }