{
  "fetched_at": "2026-10-20T03:26:28Z",
  "source_url": "https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/bst232/data",
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      "name": "rules",
      "content": "\r\n\t<!-- Begin Base Rules -->\r\n    <h3>One account per participant</h3>\r\n    <p>You cannot sign up to Kaggle from multiple accounts and therefore you cannot submit from multiple accounts.</p>\r\n    <h3>No private sharing outside teams</h3>\r\n    <p>\r\n        Privately sharing code or data outside of teams is not permitted.\r\n        It's okay to share code if made available to all participants on the forums.\r\n    </p>\r\n    <h3>Team Mergers</h3>\r\n    <p>Team mergers are not allowed in this competition.</p>\r\n\r\n    <h3>Team Limits</h3>\r\n    <p>There is no maximum team size.</p>\r\n    <h3>Submission Limits</h3>\r\n    <p>You may submit a maximum of 2 entries per day.</p>\r\n    <p>You may select up to 2 final submissions for judging.</p>\r\n    <h3>Competition Timeline</h3>\r\n    <p>Start Date: <strong>TBA</strong></p>\r\n    <p>Merger Deadline: <strong>None</strong></p>\r\n    <p>Entry Deadline: <strong>None</strong></p>\r\n    <p>End Date: <strong>2/1/2014 12:00 AM UTC</strong></p>\r\n\t<!-- End Base Rules -->\r\n<p>The rules page is a bit special: it will auto-update the text based on the parameters of the competition. The rules you need to add here are any additional rules relating to dataset usage. You may also put grading information here.</p>",
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      "content": "<h2>File descriptions</h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>train.csv</strong> - the training set</li>\n<li><strong>test.csv</strong> - the test set</li>\n</ul>\n<h2>Data fields</h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Y</strong> - child cognitive development score at 24 months (Bayley scales for infant neurodevelopment)</li>\n<li><strong>X1</strong> - concentrations of manganese (mu/dl) </li>\n<li><strong>X2</strong> - concentrations of arsenic in cord blood (mu/dl)</li>\n<li><strong>X3</strong> - concentrations of lead in cord blood (mu/dl)</li>\n<li><strong>Z1</strong> - mother age (months)</li>\n<li><strong>Z2</strong> - mother education (years)</li>\n<li><strong>Z3</strong> - mother age (centered at mean)</li>\n<li><strong>Z4</strong> - mother IQ (Z-score)</li>\n<li><strong>Z5</strong> - home quality score</li>\n<li><strong>Z6</strong> - daily nutritional intake of meat</li>\n<li><strong>Z7</strong> - daily nutritional intake of fish</li>\n<li><strong>Z8</strong> - daily nutritional intake of eggs</li>\n<li><strong>Z9</strong> - maternal smoking status</li>\n</ul>",
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      "name": "Description",
      "content": "A group of researchers is interested in investigating the effect of maternal exposure to manganese at high doses on child neuro-development in a sample of mother-infant pairs in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is experiencing an epidemic of metals and heavy metals poisoning. The soil of the country is contaminated with arsenic and manganese. Occupational and environmental exposure to lead is also a concern. The levels of arsenic, manganese, and lead found in Bangladesh can be extremely high and the support of these environmental toxicants poorly overlaps with what observed in Europe and in the USA.\n\nIn a sample of 400 mother infant pairs, the investigators measured child cognitive development (Y) at 24 months using the Bayley scales for infant neurodevelopment. Furthermore, they obtained a measure of concentrations of manganese (X1, mu/dl), the primary exposure of interest, as well as of arsenic (X2, mu/dl) and lead (X3, mu/dl) in cord blood. This measure reflects maternal exposure to these metals during pregnancy. An extensive questionnaire was filled at baseline by the mothers to collect information on potential confounders of the manganese-cognitive development relationship. These include child age at testing (Z1, months), mother education (Z2, years), mother age (Z3, centered at the mean), mother IQ (Z4, z-scored), home quality score (Z5), daily nutritional intake of egg (Z6), meat (Z7), fish (Z8), and maternal smoking status (Z9). The data is generated so that observations are be independent of each other and identically distributed (conditional on covariates). Under a certain model selection NUCA will hold. Note that not all covariates will be true confounders. \n",
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      "name": "Evaluation",
      "content": "<p>There are two aspects of the modeling that will be evaluated.  One aspect is the predictive ability of the model and the other is the inferences about the causal effect of manganese on cognitive ability.</p>\n\n<p>To evaluate predictive ability, we will assess the root mean square error of the predictions on the test set, which is defined by:</p>\n<p>\\[ RMSE = \\sqrt{\\frac{1}{n}\\sum_{i=1}^{n}(Y_i - \\widehat{Y}_i)^2} \\]</p>\n<p>For this aspect of the modeling you will be allowed to upload predictions on Kaggle and the performance on approximately a random half of the data is given so that you can gauge your performance on out-of-sample data.  The final evaluation will be done on the remaining half so that you do not overfit the test data.</p>\n<p>To submit predictions on Kaggle, you should have a CSV file where the first column is the observation ID (ID) and the second column is the corresponding prediction (Y) as you see below.\n  The file should include predictions for all 9,588 observations (with matching observation IDs) in the testing set.</p>\n<pre>ID,Y<br />1,208.3<br /><span style=\"font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.4em;\">2,204.5<br />3,249.2<br /></span><span style=\"font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.4em;\">etc.</span></pre>\n\n<p>The causal inference aspect will be evaluated by the distance to the causal effect among the test set:</p>\n<p>\\[ \\frac{1}{n_{test}}\\sum_{i=1}^{n_{test}} Y_{X_1=17,i}-Y_{X_1=4,i}. \\]</p>\n<p>Note that the training set and test set are randomly drawn from the same underlying population.  For this aspect of the evaluation you are asked to submit your model and code on canvas at the project deadline.  The performance will then be evaluated based on the submission. Please, refer to the document submitted on canvas for additional questions and information.\n",
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