![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F644036%2F2e15ae6de272b00ea0d4aefab6f3abaf%2Fdownload.png?generation=1564008322679607&alt=media\")
In my latest version of the LB tracking kernel here I took a very naive approach to forecasting the final number of teams in this competition. If you had to guess, how many teams will we end up with?
\n\n
Also important to note that the medal field grows as the total team numbers increase. 1 gold medal is added for every additional 500 teams that join. Silver is the top 5% and Bronze is top 10%
", "messages": [ { "id": "583740", "postDate": "07/24/2019 22:46:49", "content": "In my latest version of the LB tracking kernel here I took a very naive approach to forecasting the final number of teams in this competition. If you had to guess, how many teams will we end up with?
\n\n
Also important to note that the medal field grows as the total team numbers increase. 1 gold medal is added for every additional 500 teams that join. Silver is the top 5% and Bronze is top 10%
", "rawMarkdown": "In my latest version of the LB tracking kernel [here](https://www.kaggle.com/robikscube/the-race-to-predict-molecular-properties) I took a very naive approach to forecasting the final number of teams in this competition. If you had to guess, how many teams will we end up with?\n\n\n\n\n\nAlso important to note that the medal field grows as the total team numbers increase. 1 gold medal is added for every additional 500 teams that join. Silver is the top 5% and Bronze is top 10%", "votes": null }, { "id": "584537", "postDate": "07/26/2019 06:26:17", "content": "I think more people will join near the end...
", "rawMarkdown": "I think more people will join near the end...", "votes": null }, { "id": "584542", "postDate": "07/26/2019 06:31:28", "content": "I believe it won't exceed 3000. I expect it to be around 2800.
", "rawMarkdown": "I believe it won't exceed 3000. I expect it to be around 2800.", "votes": null }, { "id": "584562", "postDate": "07/26/2019 06:56:15", "content": "Very interesting. Can you predict winning scores based on trend/number of entries per team etc?
", "rawMarkdown": "Very interesting. Can you predict winning scores based on trend/number of entries per team etc?", "votes": null }, { "id": "584866", "postDate": "07/26/2019 15:40:10", "content": "My guess is very similar to yours. I’m predicting 2981 teams. Growth looks like it’s slowing down, and this isn’t exactly the type of competition you can join in the final few days and expect a lot of success.
", "rawMarkdown": "My guess is very similar to yours. I’m predicting 2981 teams. Growth looks like it’s slowing down, and this isn’t exactly the type of competition you can join in the final few days and expect a lot of success.", "votes": null }, { "id": "584947", "postDate": "07/26/2019 17:57:28", "content": "Growth looks like slowing down, but there are few instabilities to take into account:\n1. Some peak increase will be in next week or two just prior to merge and the 1-2 week before the end of the competition, and we can expect moving behind 3000 (what do you think Ahmet, @divrikwicky?)\n2. Some additional gain can be expected with the release of nice kernels which personally can be upgraded (no private data blending etc), this can motivate people to join at last days.
", "rawMarkdown": "Growth looks like slowing down, but there are few instabilities to take into account:\n1. Some peak increase will be in next week or two just prior to merge and the 1-2 week before the end of the competition, and we can expect moving behind 3000 (what do you think Ahmet, @divrikwicky?)\n2. Some additional gain can be expected with the release of nice kernels which personally can be upgraded (no private data blending etc), this can motivate people to join at last days.", "votes": null }, { "id": "584948", "postDate": "07/26/2019 17:58:02", "content": "I think so. I expect we gain +20% in almost 20 days rest
", "rawMarkdown": "I think so. I expect we gain +20% in almost 20 days rest", "votes": null }, { "id": "588409", "postDate": "07/30/2019 14:39:16", "content": "Interesting idea. I think definitely more than 3000. I am taking prior information into account. There is another competition for Dog classification which finishes before this, there is a trend that people jump to the competition which has the earliest deadline once they finish a competition.
", "rawMarkdown": "Interesting idea. I think definitely more than 3000. I am taking prior information into account. There is another competition for Dog classification which finishes before this, there is a trend that people jump to the competition which has the earliest deadline once they finish a competition.", "votes": null }, { "id": "588421", "postDate": "07/30/2019 14:53:54", "content": "I hope you're right about 3k+.
\n\nAfter re-running the kernel yesterday I'm seeing even more of a slow down in growth. There also might be a small impact because of team merges.
\n\n![\"\"](\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F644036%2F10f0e27a80eb85610eb3e41e46bffeb0%2Ffcst.png?generation=1564498367647543&alt=media\")
@divrikwicky - I'm realizing you guessed the final team count almost on the nose- a month before the competition closed! Well done.
", "rawMarkdown": "divrikwicky - I'm realizing you guessed the final team count almost on the nose- a month before the competition closed! Well done.", "votes": null }, { "id": "614803", "postDate": "09/01/2019 05:10:24", "content": "I guess I am more predictive than my models. Next competition I will predict each row myself:)
", "rawMarkdown": "I guess I am more predictive than my models. Next competition I will predict each row myself:)", "votes": null } ], "comments": [ { "id": 584537, "author_name": "scaomath", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/26/2019 06:26:17", "content": "I think more people will join near the end...
", "votes": null, "replies": [ { "id": 584948, "author_name": "muhakabartay", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/26/2019 17:58:02", "content": "I think so. I expect we gain +20% in almost 20 days rest
", "votes": null, "replies": [] } ] }, { "id": 584542, "author_name": "aerdem4", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/26/2019 06:31:28", "content": "I believe it won't exceed 3000. I expect it to be around 2800.
", "votes": null, "replies": [ { "id": 584866, "author_name": "robikscube", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/26/2019 15:40:10", "content": "My guess is very similar to yours. I’m predicting 2981 teams. Growth looks like it’s slowing down, and this isn’t exactly the type of competition you can join in the final few days and expect a lot of success.
", "votes": null, "replies": [] }, { "id": 584947, "author_name": "muhakabartay", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/26/2019 17:57:28", "content": "Growth looks like slowing down, but there are few instabilities to take into account:\n1. Some peak increase will be in next week or two just prior to merge and the 1-2 week before the end of the competition, and we can expect moving behind 3000 (what do you think Ahmet, @divrikwicky?)\n2. Some additional gain can be expected with the release of nice kernels which personally can be upgraded (no private data blending etc), this can motivate people to join at last days.
", "votes": null, "replies": [] }, { "id": 614727, "author_name": "robikscube", "author_url": "", "post_date": "09/01/2019 00:49:59", "content": "@divrikwicky - I'm realizing you guessed the final team count almost on the nose- a month before the competition closed! Well done.
", "votes": null, "replies": [] }, { "id": 614803, "author_name": "aerdem4", "author_url": "", "post_date": "09/01/2019 05:10:24", "content": "I guess I am more predictive than my models. Next competition I will predict each row myself:)
", "votes": null, "replies": [] } ] }, { "id": 584562, "author_name": "antorsae", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/26/2019 06:56:15", "content": "Very interesting. Can you predict winning scores based on trend/number of entries per team etc?
", "votes": null, "replies": [] }, { "id": 588409, "author_name": "cyberia", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/30/2019 14:39:16", "content": "Interesting idea. I think definitely more than 3000. I am taking prior information into account. There is another competition for Dog classification which finishes before this, there is a trend that people jump to the competition which has the earliest deadline once they finish a competition.
", "votes": null, "replies": [ { "id": 588421, "author_name": "robikscube", "author_url": "", "post_date": "07/30/2019 14:53:54", "content": "I hope you're right about 3k+.
\n\nAfter re-running the kernel yesterday I'm seeing even more of a slow down in growth. There also might be a small impact because of team merges.
\n\n