# Evaluation

Participants should use the historical epidemiological data until the report submission deadline (Sep. 26, 2021). In their report, they should include predictions for the 1-week prediction period (Sep. 27, 2021 – Oct. 4, 2021) following the submission deadline.

All participants will need to submit their predictions for the following values:

1. Daily new cases for the 1-week prediction period
2. 7-day average of daily new cases for every 7-day window ending on each day of the 1-week prediction period
3. Daily positivity rate for the 1-week prediction period
4. 7-day average of the positivity rate for every 7-day window ending on each day of the 1-week prediction period

Along with these future predictions, all participants should report how accurately their trained models were able to fit the historical data for the 4-week period ending on the submission date (Aug. 30, 2021 – Sep. 26, 2021).

Submitted predictions will be evaluated based on a combination of the following metrics:

1. How accurately is the predictive model able to model the trends in the past?

2. How accurately can the model predict future trends for the next 1-week period?