{ "fetched_at": "2026-10-19T06:34:19Z", "source_url": "https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/earthquake-prediction/data", "pages": [ { "name": "data-description", "content": "The data for this competition was recorded continuously and then split sequentially as ``train`` and ``test`` data. It contains all the information necessary to complete both parts of the challenge.\n\n## **File Descriptions**\n**train.csv:** Data you can use to train your models. Includes features and label data.\n**test.csv:** Acoustic emission measurements you should use to generate your predictions.\n**sample_submission_long.csv:** Example of a properly formatted submission file.\n## **Data Fields**\n**time_stamp:** time at which acoustic emission, time-to-failure, and end-point displacement measurements were taken\n**ae_1 through ae_6000:** acoustic emission signal\n**ttf:** time-to-failure reading\n**EP_disp:** end-point displacement measurement\n**EP_disp_FUT_1:** end-point displacement measurement for the subsequent timestep\n**EP_disp_FUT_2:** end-point displacement measurement two timesteps in the future\n**EP_disp_FUT_3:** end-point displacement measurement three timesteps in the future\n\nIn ``train.csv``, the first column is the ``time_stamp`` at which the measurements in the corresponding row were taken. The next 6000 columns consist of acoustic emission readings. The goal is to predict the final five columns ``ttf``, ``EP_disp``, ``EP_disp_FUT_1``, ``EP_disp_FUT_2``, and ``EP_disp_FUT_3``.\n\nIn ``test.csv``, we just provide timestamps and the acoustic emission readings. From this data, your models should predict the ttf as well as displacement values for the current timestep and the next three future timesteps.\n\nData is collected in Chris Marone's rock physics lab at Penn State (https://personal.ems.psu.edu/~cjm38/).\n", "isPublished": false, "hasIsPublished": false, "postTitle": "", "hasPostTitle": false, "mimeType": "", "hasMimeType": false }, { "name": "Details", "content": "The goal of this competition is to be able to predict end-point displacement and time-to-failure of a block-on-block friction sliding experiment based on acoustic emission (AE) data. This laboratory fault experiment is an example of the geological environment in which real-world earthquakes occur and designed to facilitate the understanding of the underlying processes. Details of the experimental setup can be found in [this paper]( https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/5/e2011362118.full.pdf).\n\nThis challenge is split into two parts:\n\n## Part 1 - Real-time Prediction \nGiven AE waveforms, predict *end-point displacement (EP_disp)* and *time-to-failure (TTF)* at the corresponding timestep.\n\n## Part 2 - Future Prediction \nGiven AE waveforms, predict *future displacement*. For this part, you should use a window of 5 AE reading segments (i.e., 5 segments of 6000 readings each) and predict the end-point displacement values associated with the **three subsequent time steps.**\n\n*Your submission should adhere to the defined prediction problem. If you are among the competition winners, you will be asked to provide your code and models.*", "isPublished": false, "hasIsPublished": false, "postTitle": "", "hasPostTitle": false, "mimeType": "", "hasMimeType": false }, { "name": "Submission File", "content": "For each time_stamp in the test dataset, you must predict ttf and the four EP_disp values. The file should contain a header and have the following format:\n```text\nindex,time_stamp,ttf,EP_disp,EP_disp_FUT_1,EP_disp_FUT_2,EP_disp_FUT_3\n1,2814.286073,0,0,0,0,0\n2,2814.286912,0,0,0,0,0\n3,2814.287751,0,0,0,0,0\n```", "isPublished": false, "hasIsPublished": false, "postTitle": "", "hasPostTitle": false, "mimeType": "", "hasMimeType": false }, { "name": "rules", "content": "**One account per participant**\nYou cannot sign up to Kaggle from multiple accounts and therefore you cannot submit from multiple accounts.\n\n**No private sharing outside teams**\nPrivately sharing code or data outside of teams is not permitted. It's okay to share code if made available to all participants on the forums.\n\n**Team Mergers**\nTeam mergers are allowed and can be performed by the team leader. In order to merge, the combined team must have a total submission count less than or equal to the maximum allowed as of the merge date. The maximum allowed is the number of submissions per day multiplied by the number of days the competition has been running.\n\n**Team Limits**\nThe maximum team size is 4.\n\n**Submission Limits**\nYou may submit a maximum of 2 entries per day.\n\nYou may select up to 2 final submissions for judging.\n\n**Competition Timeline**\nStart Date: September 14, 2023\n\nEnd Date: October 27, 2023\n\n**ENTRY IN THIS COMPETITION CONSTITUTES YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF THESE OFFICIAL COMPETITION RULES.**\n\nThe Competition named above is a skills-based competition to promote and further the field of data science. You must register via the Competition Website to enter. Your competition submissions (\"Submissions\") must conform to the requirements stated on the Competition Website. Your Submissions will be scored based on the evaluation metric described on the Competition Website. Subject to compliance with the Competition Rules described on the Competition Website, if any, will be awarded to participants with the best scores, based on the merits of the data science models submitted. See below for the complete Competition Rules.\n\n## A. SPECIFIC COMPETITION RULES\nIn addition to the provisions of the General Competition Rules below, you understand and agree to these Specific Competition Rules required by the Competition Sponsor:\n\n### WINNER LICENSE\nUnder Section 10 (Winners Obligations) of the General Rules below, you hereby grant and will grant Competition Sponsor the following license(s) with respect to your Submission if you are a Competition winner:\n\nOpen Source: You hereby license and will license your winning Submission and the source code used to generate the Submission under an Open Source Initiative-approved license (see www.opensource.org) that in no event limits commercial use of such code or model containing or depending on such code.\n\n### ELIGIBILITY\nThe following provision supersedes General Rules Section 2.B. below: “Only Employees, interns, contractors, officers and directors of the Competition Sponsor, Kaggle Inc., and any other parties with access to the original research or ground truth of this competition's dataset, and their parent companies, subsidiaries and affiliates, are not eligible to win the competition. Individuals without access to the original research or ground truth are allowed to both enter and win.\"\n\n### EXTERNAL DATA\nThe following provision supersedes General Rules Section 7.C. below: “You may use data, other than the Competition Data, as allowed on the Competition Website to develop and test your models and Submissions; provided, you have the right and authority to use such external data for the purposes of the Competition, and to share such data with Sponsor and Kaggle as may be required. The source of any external data must be posted to the official competition forum prior to the Entry Deadline.\"\n\n### GOVERNING LAW\nThe following provision supersedes Section 20 of the General Rules below: “All claims arising out of or relating to these Rules will be governed by Indiana State law, excluding its conflict of laws rules, and will be litigated exclusively in the State courts of Indiana. The parties consent to personal jurisdiction in those courts. If any provision of these Rules is held to be invalid or unenforceable, all remaining provisions of the Rules will remain in full force and effect.\"\n\n## B. GENERAL COMPETITION RULES\n### 1. BINDING AGREEMENT\nTo enter the Competition, you must agree to these Official Competition Rules, which incorporate by reference the provisions and content of the Competition Website and any Specific Competition Rules above (collectively, the \"Rules\"). Please read these Rules carefully before entry to ensure you understand and agree. You agree that submission of an entry in the Competition constitutes agreement to these Rules. You may not submit an entry to the Competition and are not eligible to win the Competition unless you agree to these Rules. These Rules form a binding legal agreement between you and the Competition Sponsor with respect to the Competition.\n\n### 2. ELIGIBILITY\nA. To be eligible to enter the Competition, you must be:\n(i) a registered account holder at Kaggle.com;\n(ii) the older of 18 years old or the age of majority in your jurisdiction of residence (unless otherwise agreed to by Competition Sponsor and appropriate parental/guardian consents have been obtained by Competition Sponsor);\n(iii) not a resident of Crimea, Cuba, Iran, Syria, North Korea, or Sudan; and\n(iv) not a person or representative of an entity under U.S. export controls or sanctions (see https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/Programs.aspx).\n\nIf you are entering as a representative of a company, educational institution or other legal entity, or on behalf of your employer, these rules are binding on you, individually, and the entity you represent or are an employee. If you are acting within the scope of your employment, as an employee, contractor, or agent of another party, you warrant that such party has full knowledge of your actions and has consented thereto. You further warrant that your actions do not violate your employer's or entity's policies and procedures.\n\nThe Competition Sponsor reserves the right to verify eligibility and to adjudicate on any dispute at any time. If you provide any false information relating to the Competition concerning your identity, residency, mailing address, telephone number, email address, ownership of right, or information required for entering the Competition, you may be immediately disqualified from the Competition.\n\nB. Unless otherwise stated in the Specific Competition Rules above or prohibited by internal policies of the Competition Entities, employees, interns, contractors, officers and directors of Competition Entities may enter and participate in the Competition. \"Competition Entities\" means the Competition Sponsor, Kaggle Inc., and their respective parent companies, subsidiaries and affiliates. If you are such a participant from a Competition Entity, you are subject to all applicable internal policies of your employer with respect to your participation.\n\n### 3. SPONSOR AND HOSTING PLATFORM\nThe Competition is sponsored by Competition Sponsor named above. The Competition is hosted on behalf of Competition Sponsor by Kaggle Inc. (\"Kaggle\"). Kaggle is an independent contractor of Competition Sponsor, is not a party to this or any agreement between you and Competition Sponsor. You understand that Kaggle has no responsibility with respect to selecting the potential Competition winner(s) or awarding any Prizes. Kaggle will perform certain administrative functions relating to hosting the Competition, and you agree to abide by the provisions relating to Kaggle under these Rules. As a Kaggle.com account holder and user of the Kaggle competition platform, remember you have accepted and are subject to the Kaggle Terms of Service at www.kaggle.com/terms in addition to these Rules.\n\n### 4. COMPETITION PERIOD\nThe Competition will run from the Start Date and time to the End Date and time (such duration the “Competition Period”), as stated on the Competition Website. The Competition Period and Submission deadlines are subject to change, and Competition Sponsor may introduce additional hurdle deadlines during the Competition. Any updated or additional deadlines will be publicized on the Competition Website. It is your responsibility to check the Competition Website regularly to stay informed of any deadline changes. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR DETERMINING THE CORRESPONDING TIME ZONE IN YOUR LOCATION.\n\n### 5. COMPETITION ENTRY\nNO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. To enter the Competition, you must register on the Competition Website during the Competition Period, and follow the instructions for developing and entering your Submission through the Competition Website. Your Submissions must be made in the manner and format, and in compliance with all other requirements, stated on the Competition Website (the \"Requirements\"). Submissions must be received before any Submission deadlines stated on the Competition Website.\n\nSubmissions may not use or incorporate information from hand labeling or human prediction of the validation dataset or test data records.\n\nIf the Competition is a multi-stage competition with temporally separate training data and/or leaderboard data, one or more valid Submissions may be required during each Competition stage in the manner described on the Competition Website in order for the Submissions to be eligible.\n\nSubmissions are void if they are in whole or part illegible, incomplete, damaged, altered, counterfeit, obtained through fraud, or late. Competition Sponsor reserves the right to disqualify any entrant who makes a Submission that does not meet the Requirements.\n\n### 6. INDIVIDUALS AND TEAMS\nA. Individual Account. You may make Submissions only under one, unique Kaggle.com account. You will be disqualified if you make Submissions through more than one Kaggle account, or attempt to falsify an account to act as your proxy. You may submit up to the maximum number of Submissions per day as specified on the Competition Website.\n\nB. Teams. If permitted under the Competition Website guidelines, multiple individuals may collaborate as a team (a \"Team\"); however, you may join or form only one Team. Each Team member must be a single individual with a separate Kaggle account. You must register individually for the Competition before joining a Team. You must confirm your Team membership to make it official by responding to the Team notification message sent to your Kaggle account. Team membership may not exceed the Maximum Team Size stated on the Competition Website.\n\nC. Team Merger. Teams may request to merge via the Competition Website. Team mergers may be allowed provided that: (i) the combined Team does not exceed the Maximum Team Size; (ii) the number of Submissions made by the merging Teams does not exceed the number of Submissions permissible for one Team at the date of the merger request; (iii) the merger is completed before the earlier of: any merger deadline or the Competition deadline; and (iv) the proposed combined Team otherwise meets all the requirements of these Rules.\n\n### 7. COMPETITION DATA\n\"Competition Data\" means the data or datasets available from the Competition Website for the purpose of use in the Competition, including any prototype or executable code provided on the Competition Website.\n\nA. Data Access and Use. Unless otherwise restricted under the Competition Specific Rules above, you may access and use the Competition Data for non-commercial purposes only, including for participating in the Competition and on Kaggle.com forums, and for academic research and education. The Competition Sponsor reserves the right to disqualify any participant who uses the Competition Data other than as permitted by the Competition Website and these Rules.\n\nB. Data Security. You agree to use reasonable and suitable measures to prevent persons who have not formally agreed to these Rules from gaining access to the Competition Data. You agree not to transmit, duplicate, publish, redistribute or otherwise provide or make available the Data to any party not participating in the Competition. You agree to notify Kaggle immediately upon learning of any possible unauthorized transmission or unauthorized access of the Data and agree to work with Kaggle to rectify any unauthorized transmission. You agree that participation in the Competition will not be construed as having or being granted a license (expressly, by implication, estoppel, or otherwise) under, or any right of ownership in, any of the Data.\n\nC. External Data. Unless otherwise expressly stated on the Competition Website, you may use data other than the Competition Data to develop and test your models and Submissions.\n\n### 8. SUBMISSION CODE REQUIREMENTS\nA. Private Code Sharing. Unless otherwise specifically permitted under the Competition Website or Competition Specific Rules above, during the Competition, you are not allowed to privately share source or executable code developed in connection with or based upon the Competition Data or other source or executable code relevant to the Competition (“Competition Code”). This prohibition includes sharing Competition Code between separate Teams, unless a Team merger occurs. Any such sharing of Competition Code is a breach of these Competition Rules and may result in disqualification.\n\nB. Public Code Sharing. You are permitted to publicly share Competition Code, provided that such public sharing does not violate the intellectual property rights of any third party. If you do choose to share Competition Code or other such code, you are required to share it on Kaggle.com on the discussion forum or kernels associated specifically with the Competition for the benefit of all competitors. By so sharing, you are deemed to have licensed the shared code under an Open Source Initiative-approved license (see www.opensource.org) that in no event limits commercial use of such Competition Code or model containing or depending on such Competition Code.\n\nC. Use of Open Source. Unless otherwise stated in the Specific Competition Rules above, if Open Source code is used in the model to general the Submission, then you must only use Open Source code licensed under an Open Source Initiative-approved license (see www.opensource.org) that in no event limits commercial use of such code or model containing or depending on such code.\n\n### 9. DETERMINING WINNERS\nEach Submission will be scored and ranked by the evaluation metric stated on the Competition Website. During the Competition, the current ranking will be visible on the Competition Website's leaderboard. The potential winner(s) are determined solely by the leaderboard ranking on the private leaderboard as stated on the Competition Website, subject to compliance with these Rules.\n\nIn the event of a tie, the Submission that was entered first to the Competition will be the winner. In the event a potential winner is disqualified for any reason, the Submission that received the next highest score rank will be chosen as the potential winner.\n\nThe potential winner(s) will be notified by email. If a potential winner does not respond to the notification attempt within one (1) week from the first notification attempt, then such potential winner will be disqualified and an alternate potential winner will be selected from among all eligible entries received based on the Competition’s judging criteria.\n\nThe winner's list will be publicly displayed at Kaggle.com. Determinations of Competition Sponsor are final and binding.\n\nCompetition Sponsor reserves the right to disqualify any participant from the Competition if the Competition Sponsor reasonably believes that the participant has attempted to undermine the legitimate operation of the Competition by cheating, deception, or other unfair playing practices or abuses, threatens or harasses any other participants, Competition Sponsor or Kaggle.\n\n### 10. WINNERS OBLIGATIONS\nWinner must fulfill the following obligations:\n\n(a) deliver to the Competition Sponsor the final model's software code as used to generate the winning Submission and associated documentation. The delivered software code must be capable of generating the winning Submission and contain a description of resources required to build and/or run the executable code successfully;\n\n(b) grant to Competition Sponsor the license to the winning Submission as stated in the Competition Specific Rules above, and represent that you have the unrestricted right to grant that license;\n\n### 11. GENERAL CONDITIONS\nAll federal, state, provincial and local laws and regulations apply. Competition Sponsor reserves the right to disqualify any entrant from the Competition if the Competition Sponsor reasonably believes that the entrant has attempted to undermine the legitimate operation of the Competition by cheating, deception, or other unfair playing practices or abuses, threatens or harasses any other entrants, Competition Sponsor or Kaggle.\n\n### 12. PRIVACY\nYou acknowledge and agree that Competition Sponsor and Kaggle may collect, store, share and otherwise use personally identifiable information provided during the registration process and the Competition, including but not limited to, name, mailing address, phone number, and email address. Kaggle will use this information in accordance with its Privacy Policy , including for administering the Competition. Your information may also be transferred to countries outside the country of your residence, including the United States. Such other countries may not have privacy laws and regulations similar to those of the country of your residence. As a Kaggle.com account holder, you have the right to request access, review, rectification or deletion of any personal data held by Kaggle by logging into your account.\n\n### 13. WARRANTY, INDEMNITY AND RELEASE\nYou warrant that your Submission is your own original work and, as such, you are the sole and exclusive owner and rights holder of the Submission, and you have the right to make the Submission and grant all required licenses. You agree not to make any Submission that: (i) infringes any third party proprietary rights, intellectual property rights, industrial property rights, personal or moral rights or any other rights, including without limitation, copyright, trademark, patent, trade secret, privacy, publicity or confidentiality obligations, or defames any person; or (ii) otherwise violates any applicable U.S. or foreign state or federal law.\n\nTo the maximum extent permitted by law, you indemnify and agree to keep indemnified Competition Entities at all times from and against any liability, claims, demands, losses, damages, costs and expenses resulting from any of your acts, defaults or omissions t and/or a breach of any warranty set forth herein. To the maximum extent permitted by law, you agree to defend, indemnify and hold harmless the Competition Entities from and against any and all claims, actions, suits or proceedings, as well as any and all losses, liabilities, damages, costs and expenses (including reasonable attorneys fees) arising out of or accruing from: (a) your Submission or other material uploaded or otherwise provided by you that infringes any third party proprietary rights, intellectual property rights, industrial property rights, personal or moral rights or any other rights, including without limitation, copyright, trademark, patent, trade secret, privacy, publicity or confidentiality obligations, or defames any person; (b) any misrepresentation made by you in connection with the Competition; (c) any non-compliance by you with these Rules or any applicable U.S. or foreign state or federal law; (d) claims brought by persons or entities other than the parties to these Rules arising from or related to your involvement with the Competition; and (e) your acceptance, possession, misuse or use of any Prize, or your participation in the Competition and any Competition-related activity.\n\nYou hereby release Competition Entities from any liability associated with: (a) any malfunction or other problem with the Competition Website; (b) any error in the collection, processing, or retention of any Submission; or (c) any typographical or other error in the printing, offering or announcement of any Prize or winners.\n\n### 14. INTERNET\nCompetition Entities are not responsible for any malfunction of the Competition Website or any late, lost, damaged, misdirected, incomplete, illegible, undeliverable, or destroyed Submissions or entry materials due to system errors, failed, incomplete or garbled computer or other telecommunication transmission malfunctions, hardware or software failures of any kind, lost or unavailable network connections, typographical or system/human errors and failures, technical malfunction(s) of any telephone network or lines, cable connections, satellite transmissions, servers or providers, or computer equipment, traffic congestion on the Internet or at the Competition Website, or any combination thereof, which may limit an entrant's ability to participate.\n\n### 15. RIGHT TO CANCEL, MODIFY OR DISQUALIFY\nIf for any reason the Competition is not capable of running as planned, including infection by computer virus, bugs, tampering, unauthorized intervention, fraud, technical failures, or any other causes which corrupt or affect the administration, security, fairness, integrity, or proper conduct of the Competition, Competition Sponsor reserves the right to cancel, terminate, modify or suspend the Competition. Competition Sponsor further reserves the right to disqualify any entrant who tampers with the submission process or any other part of the Competition or Competition Website. Any attempt by an entrant to deliberately damage any web site, including the Competition Website, or undermine the legitimate operation of the Competition is a violation of criminal and civil laws and should such an attempt be made, Competition Sponsor and Kaggle each reserves the right to seek damages from any such entrant to the fullest extent of the applicable law.\n\n### 16. NOT AN OFFER OR CONTRACT OF EMPLOYMENT\nUnless otherwise specifically provided under the Competition Website, under no circumstances will the entry of a Submission, the awarding of a Prize, or anything in these Rules be construed as an offer or contract of employment with Competition Sponsor or any of the Competition Entities. You acknowledge that you have submitted your Submission voluntarily and not in confidence or in trust. You acknowledge that no confidential, fiduciary, agency or other relationship or implied-in-fact contract now exists between you and Competition Sponsor or any of the Competition Entities, and that no such relationship is established by your entry of your Submission.\n", "isPublished": false, "hasIsPublished": false, "postTitle": "", "hasPostTitle": false, "mimeType": "", "hasMimeType": false }, { "name": "abstract", "content": "Boston University [Center for Information & Systems Engineering (CISE)](https://www.bu.edu/cise/) is organizing a challenge to help better understand earthquakes and, in the longer term, contribute to advancing earthquake sciences using AI. Our goal as a community is to explore where AI can create a difference in this important field and create new collaborations and sustained interest in the topic going forward.\n\nParticipants of this Kaggle challenge will compete in predicting **earthquake timing and surface displacement**, based on the laboratory data provided by Penn State University (PSU) in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) supported by the Office of Science Basic Energy Sciences program.\n\nWinners of the challenge (tentatively top 2 teams) will be recognized and awarded at the [AI for Understanding Earthquakes Workshop](https://www.bu.edu/cise/ai-challenge/) that will be held at Boston University on **November 10, 2023**.\n\nThis challenge will lead to a second prediction challenge using field data, details of which will be announced at a later time.", "isPublished": false, "hasIsPublished": false, "postTitle": "", "hasPostTitle": false, "mimeType": "", "hasMimeType": false }, { "name": "Evaluation", "content": "Predictions for ttf and all of the EP_disp values will be evaluated using mean absolute error between the predicted and actual values.\n", "isPublished": false, "hasIsPublished": false, "postTitle": "", "hasPostTitle": false, "mimeType": "", "hasMimeType": false }, { "name": "References", "content": "[1] Johnson, P. A., Rouet-Leduc, B., Pyrak-Nolte, L. J., Beroza, G. C., Marone, C. J., Hulbert, C., et al. (2021). Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(5), e2011362118. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/5/e2011362118.full.pdf", "isPublished": false, "hasIsPublished": false, "postTitle": "", "hasPostTitle": false, "mimeType": "", "hasMimeType": false } ] }