{
  "id": 319511,
  "title": "Don't lose hope before the final update!",
  "url": "/competitions/g-research-crypto-forecasting/discussion/319511",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2022-04-17T17:35:49.442880800Z",
  "votes": 14,
  "comment_count": 3,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>Now, that only one update is left, teams just barely missing bronze/silver/gold might have already given up. But don't lose hope yet. I have updated my <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/fritzcremer/leaderboard-shakeup\" target=\"_blank\">Leaderboard Shakeup notebook</a> with the latest LB and added some metrics to give more insights. When looking at the biggest rank improvements from update 4 to 5, it is clear that there is still a lot of potential, especially now that the final update has a 3 weeks gap instead of 2 weeks.</p>\n<p>These are the teams with the biggest rank improvements in different top n categories from the most recent update:</p>\n<p><strong>Maximum overall rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: Charles Lin</li>\n<li>Rank: 1813 -&gt; 106</li>\n<li>Score: -0.0019 -&gt; 0.0091</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 500 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: lucky seed</li>\n<li>Rank: 490 -&gt; 77</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0028 -&gt; 0.011</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 200 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: bturan19</li>\n<li>Rank: 191 -&gt; 28</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0067 -&gt; 0.0163</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 100 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: Stamford009</li>\n<li>Rank: 97 -&gt; 33</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0089 -&gt; 0.0156</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 50 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: don't overfit</li>\n<li>Rank: 34 -&gt; 10</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0145 -&gt; 0.0228</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 20 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: yuto</li>\n<li>Rank: 17 -&gt; 8</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0185 -&gt; 0.0232</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 10 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: cmanning</li>\n<li>Rank: 10 -&gt; 5</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0208 -&gt; 0.0268</li>\n</ul>\n<p>As you can see, large jumps still happen even this close to the end of the competition. I think the jump from <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/butran19\" target=\"_blank\">@butran19</a> is the most impressive, going from fighting for bronze to fighting for gold with just one update! On the flipside, downshakes happen just as easy, if not easier. So good luck and be prepared for whatever may come.</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "1758456",
      "postDate": "04/17/2022 17:35:49",
      "content": "<p>Now, that only one update is left, teams just barely missing bronze/silver/gold might have already given up. But don't lose hope yet. I have updated my <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/fritzcremer/leaderboard-shakeup\" target=\"_blank\">Leaderboard Shakeup notebook</a> with the latest LB and added some metrics to give more insights. When looking at the biggest rank improvements from update 4 to 5, it is clear that there is still a lot of potential, especially now that the final update has a 3 weeks gap instead of 2 weeks.</p>\n<p>These are the teams with the biggest rank improvements in different top n categories from the most recent update:</p>\n<p><strong>Maximum overall rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: Charles Lin</li>\n<li>Rank: 1813 -&gt; 106</li>\n<li>Score: -0.0019 -&gt; 0.0091</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 500 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: lucky seed</li>\n<li>Rank: 490 -&gt; 77</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0028 -&gt; 0.011</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 200 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: bturan19</li>\n<li>Rank: 191 -&gt; 28</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0067 -&gt; 0.0163</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 100 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: Stamford009</li>\n<li>Rank: 97 -&gt; 33</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0089 -&gt; 0.0156</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 50 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: don't overfit</li>\n<li>Rank: 34 -&gt; 10</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0145 -&gt; 0.0228</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 20 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: yuto</li>\n<li>Rank: 17 -&gt; 8</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0185 -&gt; 0.0232</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Maximum top 10 rank improvement:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n<li>Team: cmanning</li>\n<li>Rank: 10 -&gt; 5</li>\n<li>Score: 0.0208 -&gt; 0.0268</li>\n</ul>\n<p>As you can see, large jumps still happen even this close to the end of the competition. I think the jump from <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/butran19\" target=\"_blank\">@butran19</a> is the most impressive, going from fighting for bronze to fighting for gold with just one update! On the flipside, downshakes happen just as easy, if not easier. So good luck and be prepared for whatever may come.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Now, that only one update is left, teams just barely missing bronze/silver/gold might have already given up. But don't lose hope yet. I have updated my [Leaderboard Shakeup notebook](https://www.kaggle.com/fritzcremer/leaderboard-shakeup) with the latest LB and added some metrics to give more insights. When looking at the biggest rank improvements from update 4 to 5, it is clear that there is still a lot of potential, especially now that the final update has a 3 weeks gap instead of 2 weeks.\n\nThese are the teams with the biggest rank improvements in different top n categories from the most recent update:\n\n**Maximum overall rank improvement:**\n- Team: Charles Lin\n- Rank: 1813 -> 106\n- Score: -0.0019 -> 0.0091\n\n**Maximum top 500 rank improvement:**\n- Team: lucky seed\n- Rank: 490 -> 77\n- Score: 0.0028 -> 0.011\n\n**Maximum top 200 rank improvement:**\n- Team: bturan19\n- Rank: 191 -> 28\n- Score: 0.0067 -> 0.0163\n\n**Maximum top 100 rank improvement:**\n- Team: Stamford009\n- Rank: 97 -> 33\n- Score: 0.0089 -> 0.0156\n\n**Maximum top 50 rank improvement:**\n- Team: don't overfit\n- Rank: 34 -> 10\n- Score: 0.0145 -> 0.0228\n\n**Maximum top 20 rank improvement:**\n- Team: yuto\n- Rank: 17 -> 8\n- Score: 0.0185 -> 0.0232\n\n**Maximum top 10 rank improvement:**\n- Team: cmanning\n- Rank: 10 -> 5\n- Score: 0.0208 -> 0.0268\n\nAs you can see, large jumps still happen even this close to the end of the competition. I think the jump from @butran19 is the most impressive, going from fighting for bronze to fighting for gold with just one update! On the flipside, downshakes happen just as easy, if not easier. So good luck and be prepared for whatever may come.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1759199",
      "postDate": "04/18/2022 12:30:08",
      "content": "<p>The last update seems very strange at least to me, in my case I also jumped many positions from top 80%, to 30%. Perhaps they have fixed something, since in my previous updates it always ended with values very close to zero. too much rollercoaster ha. I hope that some guys with errors in their submissions have been able to score in this last one. </p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "The last update seems very strange at least to me, in my case I also jumped many positions from top 80%, to 30%. Perhaps they have fixed something, since in my previous updates it always ended with values very close to zero. too much rollercoaster ha. I hope that some guys with errors in their submissions have been able to score in this last one.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1759231",
      "postDate": "04/18/2022 13:11:55",
      "content": "<p>Competitions are certainly roulette, but I believe that efforts bring results.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Competitions are certainly roulette, but I believe that efforts bring results.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1761400",
      "postDate": "04/19/2022 21:48:03",
      "content": "<p>Well, in the first batch I was at around 30 :))))</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Well, in the first batch I was at around 30 :))))",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 1759199,
      "author_name": "maxdiazbattan",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "04/18/2022 12:30:08",
      "content": "<p>The last update seems very strange at least to me, in my case I also jumped many positions from top 80%, to 30%. Perhaps they have fixed something, since in my previous updates it always ended with values very close to zero. too much rollercoaster ha. I hope that some guys with errors in their submissions have been able to score in this last one. </p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 1759231,
      "author_name": "alexandrparkhomenko",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "04/18/2022 13:11:55",
      "content": "<p>Competitions are certainly roulette, but I believe that efforts bring results.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 1761400,
      "author_name": "bturan19",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "04/19/2022 21:48:03",
      "content": "<p>Well, in the first batch I was at around 30 :))))</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "1758456": "Now, that only one update is left, teams just barely missing bronze/silver/gold might have already given up. But don't lose hope yet. I have updated my [Leaderboard Shakeup notebook](https://www.kaggle.com/fritzcremer/leaderboard-shakeup) with the latest LB and added some metrics to give more insights. When looking at the biggest rank improvements from update 4 to 5, it is clear that there is still a lot of potential, especially now that the final update has a 3 weeks gap instead of 2 weeks.\n\nThese are the teams with the biggest rank improvements in different top n categories from the most recent update:\n\n**Maximum overall rank improvement:**\n- Team: Charles Lin\n- Rank: 1813 -> 106\n- Score: -0.0019 -> 0.0091\n\n**Maximum top 500 rank improvement:**\n- Team: lucky seed\n- Rank: 490 -> 77\n- Score: 0.0028 -> 0.011\n\n**Maximum top 200 rank improvement:**\n- Team: bturan19\n- Rank: 191 -> 28\n- Score: 0.0067 -> 0.0163\n\n**Maximum top 100 rank improvement:**\n- Team: Stamford009\n- Rank: 97 -> 33\n- Score: 0.0089 -> 0.0156\n\n**Maximum top 50 rank improvement:**\n- Team: don't overfit\n- Rank: 34 -> 10\n- Score: 0.0145 -> 0.0228\n\n**Maximum top 20 rank improvement:**\n- Team: yuto\n- Rank: 17 -> 8\n- Score: 0.0185 -> 0.0232\n\n**Maximum top 10 rank improvement:**\n- Team: cmanning\n- Rank: 10 -> 5\n- Score: 0.0208 -> 0.0268\n\nAs you can see, large jumps still happen even this close to the end of the competition. I think the jump from @butran19 is the most impressive, going from fighting for bronze to fighting for gold with just one update! On the flipside, downshakes happen just as easy, if not easier. So good luck and be prepared for whatever may come.",
    "1759199": "The last update seems very strange at least to me, in my case I also jumped many positions from top 80%, to 30%. Perhaps they have fixed something, since in my previous updates it always ended with values very close to zero. too much rollercoaster ha. I hope that some guys with errors in their submissions have been able to score in this last one.",
    "1759231": "Competitions are certainly roulette, but I believe that efforts bring results.",
    "1761400": "Well, in the first batch I was at around 30 :))))"
  },
  "source": "meta"
}