Now that the competition has ended, I updated my shakeup notebook one last time, with the private leaderboard data. In my previous discussion post, I have hypothesized that there still might be possibilities for large jumps. Those are the biggest jumps this time:
\nMaximum overall rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 500 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 200 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 100 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 50 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 20 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 10 rank improvement:
\nAs we see, several teams made huge improvements with this last update. Congrats to @stamford009 who might not have expected this 5th place with the last update! And also congratulations to @joseantonioalatorre and @eduardopeynetti. They won this competition with quite a margin so I am curious to see their solution. I also think it would be unfair to attribute their success to luck, as @eduardopeynetti already placed 3rd in the Optiver competition and @joseantonioalatorre is currently 12th place in the Ubiquant competition. So they certainly know something. This small list above doesn't cover all the great jumps (e.g. SpaceX's Team and Michael Schoustra also jumped 800-900 places into the top 100!), so check out the interactive rank shakeup plot in my notebook for more details.
", "messages": [ { "id": "1777578", "postDate": "05/04/2022 17:02:10", "content": "Now that the competition has ended, I updated my shakeup notebook one last time, with the private leaderboard data. In my previous discussion post, I have hypothesized that there still might be possibilities for large jumps. Those are the biggest jumps this time:
\nMaximum overall rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 500 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 200 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 100 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 50 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 20 rank improvement:
\nMaximum top 10 rank improvement:
\nAs we see, several teams made huge improvements with this last update. Congrats to @stamford009 who might not have expected this 5th place with the last update! And also congratulations to @joseantonioalatorre and @eduardopeynetti. They won this competition with quite a margin so I am curious to see their solution. I also think it would be unfair to attribute their success to luck, as @eduardopeynetti already placed 3rd in the Optiver competition and @joseantonioalatorre is currently 12th place in the Ubiquant competition. So they certainly know something. This small list above doesn't cover all the great jumps (e.g. SpaceX's Team and Michael Schoustra also jumped 800-900 places into the top 100!), so check out the interactive rank shakeup plot in my notebook for more details.
", "rawMarkdown": "Now that the competition has ended, I updated my shakeup [notebook](https://www.kaggle.com/fritzcremer/leaderboard-shakeup) one last time, with the private leaderboard data. In my previous [discussion post](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/g-research-crypto-forecasting/discussion/319511), I have hypothesized that there still might be possibilities for large jumps. Those are the biggest jumps this time:\n\n**Maximum overall rank improvement:**\n- Team: Sam Y\n- Rank: 1809 -> 206\n- Score: -0.0033 -> 0.006\n\n**Maximum top 500 rank improvement:**\n- Team: Spock\n- Rank: 444 -> 95\n- Score: 0.0046 -> 0.0084\n\n**Maximum top 200 rank improvement:**\n- Team: 林小姐\n- Rank: 200 -> 43\n- Score: 0.0077 -> 0.0135\n\n**Maximum top 100 rank improvement:**\n- Team: Light\n- Rank: 99 -> 27\n- Score: 0.0093 -> 0.016\n\n**Maximum top 50 rank improvement:**\n- Team: Stamford009\n- Rank: 33 -> 5\n- Score: 0.0156 -> 0.0225\n\n**Maximum top 20 rank improvement:**\n- Team: Mark O'Connell\n- Rank: 15 -> 11\n- Score: 0.021 -> 0.0192\n\n**Maximum top 10 rank improvement:**\n- Team: yuto\n- Rank: 8 -> 6\n- Score: 0.0232 -> 0.0203\n\nAs we see, several teams made huge improvements with this last update. Congrats to @stamford009 who might not have expected this 5th place with the last update! And also congratulations to @joseantonioalatorre and @eduardopeynetti. They won this competition with quite a margin so I am curious to see their solution. I also think it would be unfair to attribute their success to luck, as @eduardopeynetti already placed 3rd in the Optiver competition and @joseantonioalatorre is currently 12th place in the Ubiquant competition. So they certainly know something. This small list above doesn't cover all the great jumps (e.g. SpaceX's Team and Michael Schoustra also jumped 800-900 places into the top 100!), so check out the interactive rank shakeup plot in my notebook for more details.", "votes": null }, { "id": "1777750", "postDate": "05/04/2022 18:48:38", "content": "There's still a lot of luck in that leaderboard. I estimated I had a 60% chance of falling below 2nd place in the 6th update. Meme Lord Capital, however, with their current strong lead, would be hard to displace if there were a 7th update. I estimate they'd have a 75% chance of maintaining 1st place in that scenario.
", "rawMarkdown": "There's still a lot of luck in that leaderboard. I estimated I had a 60% chance of falling below 2nd place in the 6th update. Meme Lord Capital, however, with their current strong lead, would be hard to displace if there were a 7th update. I estimate they'd have a 75% chance of maintaining 1st place in that scenario.", "votes": null }, { "id": "1777791", "postDate": "05/04/2022 19:36:22", "content": "this final update had huge shakeup for me. I was in the top 150 in every prior update and dropped ~1200 places in this last one. c'est la vie.
", "rawMarkdown": "this final update had huge shakeup for me. I was in the top 150 in every prior update and dropped ~1200 places in this last one. c'est la vie.", "votes": null }, { "id": "1777942", "postDate": "05/04/2022 23:58:08", "content": "Yes, I think there is no doubt about that! Especially considering the drop by Tom Forbes. He was first place after 6 weeks, and now on #14. If you are lucky, you get a market that fits your model really well.
", "rawMarkdown": "Yes, I think there is no doubt about that! Especially considering the drop by Tom Forbes. He was first place after 6 weeks, and now on #14. If you are lucky, you get a market that fits your model really well.", "votes": null }, { "id": "1778070", "postDate": "05/05/2022 04:51:25", "content": "Dropped from 15% to 36% to 78% for me haha
\nI know there’ll be a huge shake up but that still looks so unreal
There's still a lot of luck in that leaderboard. I estimated I had a 60% chance of falling below 2nd place in the 6th update. Meme Lord Capital, however, with their current strong lead, would be hard to displace if there were a 7th update. I estimate they'd have a 75% chance of maintaining 1st place in that scenario.
", "votes": null, "replies": [ { "id": 1777942, "author_name": "fritzcremer", "author_url": "", "post_date": "05/04/2022 23:58:08", "content": "Yes, I think there is no doubt about that! Especially considering the drop by Tom Forbes. He was first place after 6 weeks, and now on #14. If you are lucky, you get a market that fits your model really well.
", "votes": null, "replies": [] } ] }, { "id": 1777791, "author_name": "marketneutral", "author_url": "", "post_date": "05/04/2022 19:36:22", "content": "this final update had huge shakeup for me. I was in the top 150 in every prior update and dropped ~1200 places in this last one. c'est la vie.
", "votes": null, "replies": [ { "id": 1778070, "author_name": "chiloiho", "author_url": "", "post_date": "05/05/2022 04:51:25", "content": "Dropped from 15% to 36% to 78% for me haha
\nI know there’ll be a huge shake up but that still looks so unreal