{
  "id": 418355,
  "title": "44th Place Solution - Simple LGBM",
  "content": "<p>Thank you for the competition on a very interesting topic. It was a time-series forecasting problem that predicts the true future, and was a fun theme to solve. I understood that the United States is a very large and diverse country.</p>\n<p>This is a simple LightGBM, 44th Place Solution.</p>\n<h3>Solution Overview</h3>\n<ul>\n<li><p>Only LightGBM with 32 features　</p></li>\n<li><p>Multiplier Prediction<br>\nI chose target as the multiplier between the previous month's data and the month to be predicted.</p></li>\n<li><p>Target smoothing<br>\nBecause there were so many outliers in the data, I smoothed the target by taking the medians of the three cases before and after the target.</p></li>\n<li><p>Model to forecast 1-6 months later<br>\nI created several models to forecast 1-6 months later separately.</p></li>\n<li><p>Average of 3 months<br>\nAverage the multipliers for 3 months, including the months before and after the month of forecast. This is more accurate.</p></li>\n<li><p>Conversion of population from 2020 to 2021</p></li>\n<li><p>Round(0) since it is a discrete value</p></li>\n</ul>\n<h3>My Notebook</h3>\n<p>I have published my notebook below.<br>\n<a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/code/thajime/godaady-44th-solution-lgbm\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.kaggle.com/code/thajime/godaady-44th-solution-lgbm</a></p>",
  "comments": [],
  "comment_count": 0,
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": 2310194,
      "postDate": "2023-06-20T07:31:00.073Z",
      "content": "<p>Thank you for the competition on a very interesting topic. It was a time-series forecasting problem that predicts the true future, and was a fun theme to solve. I understood that the United States is a very large and diverse country.</p>\n<p>This is a simple LightGBM, 44th Place Solution.</p>\n<h3>Solution Overview</h3>\n<ul>\n<li><p>Only LightGBM with 32 features　</p></li>\n<li><p>Multiplier Prediction<br>\nI chose target as the multiplier between the previous month's data and the month to be predicted.</p></li>\n<li><p>Target smoothing<br>\nBecause there were so many outliers in the data, I smoothed the target by taking the medians of the three cases before and after the target.</p></li>\n<li><p>Model to forecast 1-6 months later<br>\nI created several models to forecast 1-6 months later separately.</p></li>\n<li><p>Average of 3 months<br>\nAverage the multipliers for 3 months, including the months before and after the month of forecast. This is more accurate.</p></li>\n<li><p>Conversion of population from 2020 to 2021</p></li>\n<li><p>Round(0) since it is a discrete value</p></li>\n</ul>\n<h3>My Notebook</h3>\n<p>I have published my notebook below.<br>\n<a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/code/thajime/godaady-44th-solution-lgbm\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.kaggle.com/code/thajime/godaady-44th-solution-lgbm</a></p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Thank you for the competition on a very interesting topic. It was a time-series forecasting problem that predicts the true future, and was a fun theme to solve. I understood that the United States is a very large and diverse country.\n\n\n\nThis is a simple LightGBM, 44th Place Solution.\n\n### Solution Overview\n\n- Only LightGBM with 32 features　\n\n- Multiplier Prediction\n   I chose target as the multiplier between the previous month's data and the month to be predicted.\n\n- Target smoothing\n   Because there were so many outliers in the data, I smoothed the target by taking the medians of the three cases before and after the target.\n\n- Model to forecast 1-6 months later\n   I created several models to forecast 1-6 months later separately.\n\n- Average of 3 months\n   Average the multipliers for 3 months, including the months before and after the month of forecast. This is more accurate.\n\n- Conversion of population from 2020 to 2021\n\n- Round(0) since it is a discrete value\n\n### My Notebook\n\nI have published my notebook below.\n[https://www.kaggle.com/code/thajime/godaady-44th-solution-lgbm](https://www.kaggle.com/code/thajime/godaady-44th-solution-lgbm)",
      "votes": 8
    }
  ],
  "complete": true,
  "source": "live",
  "fetched_at": "2026-10-19T19:29:38Z",
  "competition_id": 41881,
  "competition_slug": "godaddy-microbusiness-density-forecasting",
  "team_id": 9819920,
  "solution_url": "/competitions/godaddy-microbusiness-density-forecasting/writeups/hajime-tamura-44th-place-solution-simple-lgbm"
}